About whether Kurzweil's predictions that AI will surpass human intelligence are falsifiable.
Has this happened?
Yes 7 (7%)Not sure 15 (15%)No 78 (78%)
Votes cast 1–2 October 2026: 100,590 votes from 9,694 people.
Hacker News has set AI a lot of challenges over the years. Which ones has it met?
About whether Kurzweil's predictions that AI will surpass human intelligence are falsifiable.
Votes cast 1–2 October 2026: 100,590 votes from 9,694 people.
He predicted Turing test by 2029 which is fairly definite, falsifiable and quite likely to be falsified.
For me proper AGI is when you could say to a robot go build some better robots and then have them build even better ones and they can do so without needing us. There will be some year before which if humans disappeared, computers and robots would grind to a halt and after which they could carry on. That's also a definite falsifiable thing, harder than the Turning test and is kind of what I think of as corresponding to the singularity which tends to be rather wooly in it's definition.