Votes cast 1–2 October 2026: 100,590 votes from 9,694 people.
Yes 39,006 (39%)Not sure 26,509 (26%)No 35,075 (35%)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
2016 Q1
14 comments, 1,868 votes- Houshalter, 2016-01-19, about whether video games or language understanding are the path to AGIYes 90 (59%)Not sure 40 (26%)No 22 (14%)
- mcv, 2016-01-19, about whether game AI can master strategy and incomplete information, beyond fast reflexesYes 59 (38%)Not sure 47 (31%)No 48 (31%)
- kang, 2016-02-07, about a quiz telling computer-generated paintings apart from human artists' workYes 97 (66%)Not sure 17 (12%)No 33 (22%)
- adrusi, 2016-02-21, about whether future AI could detect and strip all advertising, ending the ad-blocking warsYes 37 (29%)Not sure 55 (43%)No 35 (28%)
- Houshalter, 2016-03-09, about whether the Turing test's goalposts have moved as AlphaGo beats Lee SedolYes 96 (75%)Not sure 13 (10%)No 19 (15%)
- TillE, 2016-03-10, about whether AI will write popular books or make whole animated films, after AlphaGo's winYes 34 (26%)Not sure 24 (18%)No 72 (55%)
- kerkeslager, 2016-03-11, about whether AlphaGo beating Lee Sedol is a step toward general-purpose AIYes 39 (33%)Not sure 31 (26%)No 48 (41%)
- daveguy, 2016-03-12, about whether AI could actually pass the Turing test after AlphaGo's winsYes 85 (60%)Not sure 29 (20%)No 28 (20%)
- vamur, 2016-03-12, about which game AI should tackle next after AlphaGo beat Lee SedolYes 32 (26%)Not sure 62 (50%)No 31 (25%)
- SilasX, 2016-03-14, about whether AI can attempt arbitrary problems from a plain-language specYes 127 (88%)Not sure 12 (8%)No 5 (3%)
- kleer001, 2016-03-17, about what the next concrete AI milestone should be after AlphaGo beat GoYes 62 (49%)Not sure 7 (6%)No 57 (45%)
- thangalin, 2016-03-27, about whether any AI can answer commonsense questions like which object shatteredYes 68 (45%)Not sure 62 (41%)No 20 (13%)
- undersuit, 2016-03-29, about sponsored content in journalism and whether AI could detect hidden adsYes 54 (47%)Not sure 43 (37%)No 18 (16%)
- tremon, 2016-03-31, about whether word statistics alone can solve Winograd schema pronoun puzzlesYes 66 (60%)Not sure 33 (30%)No 11 (10%)
2016 Q2
3 comments, 384 votes- fizzbatter, 2016-05-18, about whether AI can turn plain English into structured, actionable data and backYes 83 (69%)Not sure 31 (26%)No 7 (6%)
- x1798DE, 2016-06-10, about whether AI can understand books well enough to answer detailed questionsYes 72 (57%)Not sure 29 (23%)No 25 (20%)
- calgoo, 2016-06-22, about an article claiming coding is over and apps can be made without programmingYes 115 (84%)Not sure 13 (9%)No 9 (7%)
2016 Q3
9 comments, 1,075 votes- lottin, 2016-08-01, about whether AI is less impressive than claimed, after an AI beat a professional Go playerYes 106 (86%)Not sure 11 (9%)No 6 (5%)
- Grue3, 2016-08-01, about the claim that AI is always less impressive than claimedYes 94 (73%)Not sure 32 (25%)No 3 (2%)
- Houshalter, 2016-08-10, about whether AI can become intelligent from text alone, without senses like sightYes 71 (59%)Not sure 29 (24%)No 21 (17%)
- seanwilson, 2016-08-19, about the AI effect, where solved problems stop counting as real intelligenceYes 106 (83%)Not sure 8 (6%)No 13 (10%)
- MawNicker, 2016-08-22, about whether a neural network passing the Turing test would reveal how humans thinkYes 70 (65%)Not sure 23 (21%)No 14 (13%)
- YeGoblynQueenne, 2016-09-18, about whether Google's self-driving car record proves it drives better than humansYes 25 (23%)Not sure 20 (18%)No 66 (59%)
- Houshalter, 2016-09-22, about whether "seed AI" that builds stronger AIs could lead to general AIYes 31 (27%)Not sure 33 (29%)No 51 (44%)
- MrQuincle, 2016-09-23, about whether general object recognition was ever considered the holy grail of AIYes 62 (57%)Not sure 23 (21%)No 23 (21%)
- M_Grey, 2016-09-29, about what AI would need to show before deserving rightsYes 66 (49%)Not sure 39 (29%)No 29 (22%)
2016 Q4
4 comments, 507 votes- crispyambulance, 2016-10-26, about AI style transfer images and whether their low resolution loses painterly detailYes 23 (15%)Not sure 56 (37%)No 71 (47%)
- ainot, 2016-11-05, about whether AGI will eventually take over software design work like UML modelingYes 106 (85%)Not sure 6 (5%)No 12 (10%)
- sweezyjeezy, 2016-11-07, about a machine learning rap lyric generator and whether it disrespects hip hopYes 68 (58%)Not sure 33 (28%)No 16 (14%)
- thenomad, 2016-11-26, about whether games against bots could offer real PvP thrills without Dota's toxic playersYes 52 (45%)Not sure 30 (26%)No 34 (29%)
2017 Q1
8 comments, 981 votes- eva1984, 2017-01-02, about whether AI hype in 2016 was overblown compared to real NLP progressYes 86 (72%)Not sure 9 (8%)No 25 (21%)
- jordigh, 2017-01-04, about a TensorFlow project that drives Mario Kart on an easy courseYes 42 (33%)Not sure 74 (57%)No 13 (10%)
- Hydraulix989, 2017-01-04, about whether AI and machine learning will revolutionize the legal professionYes 24 (17%)Not sure 42 (30%)No 73 (53%)
- sethbannon, 2017-01-31, about whether a poker AI beating top pros counts when engineers tuned it nightlyYes 28 (25%)Not sure 59 (54%)No 23 (21%)
- fauigerzigerk, 2017-02-15, about whether AI could build apps from spoken wishes like "make a web page"Yes 103 (90%)Not sure 4 (3%)No 8 (7%)
- Houshalter, 2017-02-26, about how to define high-level machine intelligence and AGIYes 62 (50%)Not sure 38 (31%)No 23 (19%)
- Houshalter, 2017-02-28, about how to define high-level machine intelligence concretelyYes 83 (72%)Not sure 24 (21%)No 9 (8%)
- nradov, 2017-03-30, about whether general AI will leave humans with no more problems to solve or jobsYes 64 (50%)Not sure 26 (20%)No 39 (30%)
2017 Q2
7 comments, 828 votes- joeyspn, 2017-04-03, about why chatbots have struggled to live up to the hypeYes 90 (73%)Not sure 20 (16%)No 13 (11%)
- Insanity, 2017-04-04, about whether shooter game bots can feel like real human playersYes 22 (21%)Not sure 62 (59%)No 21 (20%)
- dreamcompiler, 2017-04-11, about whether neural network decisions need to be explainable in human termsYes 19 (17%)Not sure 35 (31%)No 59 (52%)
- wikwocket, 2017-04-28, about whether junior developers will be replaced by deep learning within 10-15 yearsYes 102 (86%)Not sure 6 (5%)No 10 (8%)
- madamelic, 2017-05-03, about whether an email assistant that learns which emails you answer counts as AIYes 86 (72%)Not sure 15 (13%)No 18 (15%)
- nathan_f77, 2017-05-27, about whether AlphaGo's Go wins signal intelligent machines will upend all intellectual workYes 56 (43%)Not sure 28 (22%)No 46 (35%)
- codeulike, 2017-05-28, about whether intelligent game characters deserve any moral considerationYes 82 (68%)Not sure 23 (19%)No 15 (12%)
2017 Q3
10 comments, 1,230 votes- d--b, 2017-07-07, about whether chatbots can deliver good customer serviceYes 65 (68%)Not sure 12 (13%)No 18 (19%)
- jon_richards, 2017-07-30, about whether marketing will remain a human job in a robot economyYes 80 (69%)Not sure 17 (15%)No 19 (16%)
- flunhat, 2017-08-12, about whether OpenAI's Dota 2 bot shows AI goalposts are being movedYes 77 (64%)Not sure 23 (19%)No 21 (17%)
- flunhat, 2017-08-12, about whether critics keep moving AI goalposts after OpenAI's Dota 2 botYes 97 (73%)Not sure 20 (15%)No 16 (12%)
- cthor, 2017-08-13, about whether OpenAI's 1v1 Dota 2 bot is real progress or hypeYes 16 (12%)Not sure 91 (69%)No 25 (19%)
- mabramo, 2017-08-17, about OpenAI's 1v1 Dota 2 bot and whether it is really impressiveYes 29 (25%)Not sure 68 (58%)No 21 (18%)
- moxious, 2017-08-23, about whether computers are still dumb or AI goalposts keep movingYes 68 (48%)Not sure 37 (26%)No 36 (26%)
- huhlig, 2017-09-03, about whether customer-service chatbots can hold natural, human-like conversationsYes 66 (52%)Not sure 29 (23%)No 32 (25%)
- komaromy, 2017-09-17, about which next big advance in AI people are most looking forward toYes 60 (42%)Not sure 56 (39%)No 26 (18%)
- moxious, 2017-09-29, about whether the Turing test is a meaningful test of machine intelligenceYes 66 (63%)Not sure 24 (23%)No 15 (14%)
2017 Q4
7 comments, 849 votes- paganel, 2017-10-06, about whether superintelligent AI would mostly face mundane real-world problems rather than breakthroughsYes 44 (35%)Not sure 32 (26%)No 48 (39%)
- Synaesthesia, 2017-10-14, about whether AGI can be defined and how far AI is from itYes 39 (35%)Not sure 57 (51%)No 15 (14%)
- alistproducer2, 2017-10-16, about a GM executive calling Musk's claim of Level 5 driving without lidar impossibleYes 39 (34%)Not sure 27 (24%)No 48 (42%)
- yters, 2017-11-06, about a report on efforts to build AI systems that can build AIYes 42 (30%)Not sure 40 (29%)No 58 (41%)
- modi15, 2017-11-11, about whether new neural network research brings dangerous, out-of-control AI closeYes 40 (36%)Not sure 16 (14%)No 55 (50%)
- revel, 2017-11-13, about how close computers are to true conversational abilityYes 70 (59%)Not sure 22 (19%)No 26 (22%)
- JoshTriplett, 2017-11-19, about wanting a voice-interactive AI dungeon master for playing D&DYes 36 (27%)Not sure 41 (31%)No 54 (41%)
2018 Q1
2 comments, 259 votes2018 Q2
7 comments, 846 votes- Grue3, 2018-05-10, about whether AI that can trick humans, like Google Duplex, must disclose itselfYes 72 (65%)Not sure 22 (20%)No 16 (15%)
- romaniv, 2018-05-15, about which game OpenAI should tackle after Dota, such as CS:GOYes 29 (21%)Not sure 73 (54%)No 34 (25%)
- whataretensors, 2018-05-19, about whether Google Duplex should tell people they're talking to a machineYes 81 (72%)Not sure 25 (22%)No 7 (6%)
- apk17, 2018-05-19, about whether passing the Turing test in our lifetime is exciting, after Google DuplexYes 78 (63%)Not sure 18 (15%)No 27 (22%)
- tim333, 2018-05-21, about whether Google Duplex is a notable advance or just overhyped tech newsYes 78 (74%)Not sure 11 (10%)No 16 (15%)
- Omnus, 2018-06-06, about whether an algorithmic music project really counts as AI writing its own musicYes 38 (36%)Not sure 28 (26%)No 41 (38%)
- AstralStorm, 2018-06-25, about OpenAI's Dota 2 bots trained on 180 years of games per dayYes 59 (39%)Not sure 58 (38%)No 35 (23%)
2018 Q3
7 comments, 890 votes- dselsam, 2018-07-03, about whether AI beating humans at chess, Go and proofs means intelligence is easier than grippingYes 71 (61%)Not sure 21 (18%)No 24 (21%)
- pacavaca, 2018-07-08, about tech companies quietly using humans to do work sold as AIYes 79 (59%)Not sure 22 (17%)No 32 (24%)
- hadsed, 2018-07-30, about whether AI could learn how software systems work from their behaviorYes 80 (60%)Not sure 31 (23%)No 23 (17%)
- chongli, 2018-08-21, about whether Facebook and Google can judge truth and trustworthiness automatically instead of relying on authorityYes 50 (37%)Not sure 56 (41%)No 29 (21%)
- abdullahkhalids, 2018-09-12, about criticism of OpenAI Five's Dota 2 bots and whether they play the real gameYes 15 (13%)Not sure 69 (59%)No 33 (28%)
- TillE, 2018-09-18, about iOS 12 mistranslating "I missed my flight" into JapaneseYes 64 (48%)Not sure 58 (44%)No 11 (8%)
- thaniri, 2018-09-21, about Tencent's AI winning over 90 percent of StarCraft II gamesYes 22 (18%)Not sure 23 (19%)No 77 (63%)
2018 Q4
5 comments, 665 votes- Simulacra, 2018-10-12, about whether autonomous cars can ever cope with unpredictable human driversYes 60 (45%)Not sure 28 (21%)No 44 (33%)
- nradov, 2018-10-15, about whether simulating a mapped connectome could produce human-level general intelligenceYes 11 (8%)Not sure 47 (34%)No 80 (58%)
- esotericn, 2018-10-29, about manipulated YouTube comments and fears that bots online threaten democracyYes 78 (55%)Not sure 22 (15%)No 42 (30%)
- jobigoud, 2018-11-12, about whether CAPTCHAs, as reverse Turing tests, show strong AI hasn't arrived yetYes 73 (54%)Not sure 38 (28%)No 24 (18%)
- heyjudy, 2018-12-31, about whether AI could do developers' and designers' whole job end to endYes 73 (62%)Not sure 20 (17%)No 25 (21%)
2019 Q1
9 comments, 1,085 votes- chubot, 2019-01-07, about Waymo's CEO saying autonomous cars will never drive in all conditionsYes 6 (5%)Not sure 22 (17%)No 98 (78%)
- orangeeater, 2019-01-19, about a 1984 rebuttal to Searle's Chinese Room argument about machine understandingYes 65 (52%)Not sure 26 (21%)No 34 (27%)
- tim333, 2019-01-22, about whether Kurzweil's predictions that AI will surpass human intelligence are falsifiableYes 7 (7%)Not sure 15 (15%)No 78 (78%)
- rcthompson, 2019-01-25, about whether AlphaStar will soon beat humans at StarCraft II under any fair handicapYes 15 (13%)Not sure 68 (60%)No 31 (27%)
- sethammons, 2019-01-30, about whether simple-minded developers will soon be replaced by moderately intelligent AIYes 103 (77%)Not sure 16 (12%)No 15 (11%)
- eschneider, 2019-02-13, about people ignoring real calls, like a hospital's, because they assume they're robocallsYes 81 (64%)Not sure 26 (21%)No 19 (15%)
- Retra, 2019-02-15, about whether GPT-2 tuned on movie subtitle dialogue could pass a proper Turing testYes 61 (51%)Not sure 35 (29%)No 24 (20%)
- subroutine, 2019-03-14, about whether AI is anywhere near human-level, judged by Siri's limitsYes 19 (16%)Not sure 53 (45%)No 46 (39%)
- TicklishTiger, 2019-03-27, about whether the Turing award or the Turing test matters more, after deep learning pioneers winYes 90 (74%)Not sure 24 (20%)No 8 (7%)
2019 Q2
2 comments, 243 votes- londons_explore, 2019-04-09, about whether AI could fly a crippled aircraft better than human pilotsYes 12 (9%)Not sure 67 (52%)No 50 (39%)
- roywiggins, 2019-06-15, about a paper arguing that Turing machines can never pass the Turing testYes 71 (62%)Not sure 33 (29%)No 10 (9%)
2019 Q3
6 comments, 753 votes- sneak, 2019-07-05, about California's law banning bots from posing as real people without disclosureYes 102 (72%)Not sure 26 (18%)No 13 (9%)
- sixplusone, 2019-07-17, about Waymo's CEO saying fully autonomous level five cars will basically never existYes 18 (16%)Not sure 22 (19%)No 76 (66%)
- ilaksh, 2019-07-20, about an Amazon warehouse worker's account and whether robots could replace themYes 16 (16%)Not sure 32 (31%)No 54 (53%)
- sgt101, 2019-07-24, about whether passing the Turing test would show that a machine is consciousYes 12 (10%)Not sure 16 (13%)No 92 (77%)
- smt88, 2019-08-23, about whether forums like HN could quietly fill up with polite, human-seeming botsYes 88 (68%)Not sure 23 (18%)No 18 (14%)
- CPLX, 2019-09-29, about collisions with Tesla's Smart Summon and whether more data leads to self-drivingYes 62 (43%)Not sure 34 (23%)No 49 (34%)
2019 Q4
5 comments, 608 votes- pjc50, 2019-10-11, about whether people can form real emotional connections with AIs rather than humansYes 86 (59%)Not sure 37 (26%)No 22 (15%)
- eternalny1, 2019-10-26, about how soon AI that beats humans at programming contests would replace programmersYes 59 (65%)Not sure 26 (29%)No 6 (7%)
- taneq, 2019-11-05, about whether GPT-2 successors will soon write essays good enough for students to cheatYes 98 (80%)Not sure 8 (7%)No 17 (14%)
- School-Cotton, 2019-11-07, about whether riding a bike is harder for a robot than driving a carYes 11 (9%)Not sure 37 (32%)No 68 (59%)
- username90, 2019-11-14, about what would count as artificial general intelligence, beyond passing the Turing testYes 5 (4%)Not sure 21 (16%)No 107 (80%)
2020 Q1
6 comments, 771 votes- diek, 2020-01-30, about why someone chose a Chevy Bolt over a self-driving-capable TeslaYes 35 (25%)Not sure 27 (19%)No 79 (56%)
- winternett, 2020-02-03, about Tesla's self-driving overlay video and whether rule-based driving systems count as AIYes 47 (38%)Not sure 28 (23%)No 49 (40%)
- fnord77, 2020-02-15, about self-driving cars turning out to be harder than expectedYes 15 (13%)Not sure 30 (26%)No 72 (62%)
- dmitrygr, 2020-02-20, about Tesla Autopilot being tricked into speeding by a modified speed signYes 44 (32%)Not sure 26 (19%)No 67 (49%)
- leftyted, 2020-02-27, about whether the Turing test is a good measure of human-level AIYes 80 (66%)Not sure 19 (16%)No 22 (18%)
- JohnJamesRambo, 2020-03-04, about whether AI is anywhere near ruling humans, given it can't drive in snowYes 32 (24%)Not sure 56 (43%)No 43 (33%)
2020 Q2
6 comments, 685 votes- djsumdog, 2020-05-14, about whether self-driving cars will ever be viable, after Cruise layoffsYes 44 (37%)Not sure 40 (33%)No 36 (30%)
- ben_w, 2020-05-20, about an OpenAI code-generation demo and whether programmers will lose their jobsYes 35 (28%)Not sure 22 (17%)No 70 (55%)
- pjc50, 2020-05-22, about Siri's poor answers to questions like what time it is in LondonYes 47 (46%)Not sure 23 (23%)No 32 (31%)
- mixedbit, 2020-06-02, about board games with simple rules but complex gameplay, like DixitYes 9 (8%)Not sure 85 (80%)No 12 (11%)
- memexy, 2020-06-04, about whether AI is anywhere near human thinking, and whether to fear itYes 69 (58%)Not sure 29 (25%)No 20 (17%)
- Barrin92, 2020-06-11, about whether the OpenAI API's text models mean AGI is only a few years awayYes 25 (22%)Not sure 84 (75%)No 3 (3%)
2020 Q3
7 comments, 870 votes- rvz, 2020-07-19, about whether GPT-3's surprising results mean AGI may be closer than skeptics thinkYes 49 (39%)Not sure 39 (31%)No 37 (30%)
- vsskanth, 2020-07-20, about why GPT-3 is a big deal and what GPT-4 might doYes 116 (77%)Not sure 14 (9%)No 21 (14%)
- MayeulC, 2020-07-20, about what GPT-3 might do next, after it generated a presentation from a promptYes 109 (87%)Not sure 8 (6%)No 8 (6%)
- flukus, 2020-07-27, about whether autonomous trains and planes can handle random obstacles in open systemsYes 35 (26%)Not sure 49 (36%)No 52 (38%)
- rvz, 2020-08-15, about whether GPT-3 could help humanity fight Covid-19Yes 27 (26%)Not sure 21 (20%)No 57 (54%)
- thisisbrians, 2020-08-20, about whether any new kind of work will be immune to automation, in a universal basic income threadYes 17 (15%)Not sure 22 (19%)No 77 (66%)
- isoprophlex, 2020-09-10, about a claim of Latin in the Voynich manuscript and whether GPT-3 could translate itYes 28 (25%)Not sure 52 (46%)No 32 (29%)
2020 Q4
5 comments, 602 votes- username90, 2020-10-25, about what intelligence tests would be equally valid for humans, animals and machinesYes 16 (13%)Not sure 35 (28%)No 75 (60%)
- stanrivers, 2020-11-02, about a South Park satire series using AI deepfakes and what deepfakes mean for trusting videoYes 36 (33%)Not sure 31 (29%)No 41 (38%)
- PaulHoule, 2020-12-16, about whether lacking copyrighted novels in training data limits AI-generated fiction and personasYes 92 (70%)Not sure 28 (21%)No 12 (9%)
- jamil7, 2020-12-20, about whether cooking is easy to automate, as argued in a thread on abolishing workYes 9 (8%)Not sure 34 (28%)No 77 (64%)
- simonh, 2020-12-30, about whether the hard part of the Turing test is intelligence or imitating human quirksYes 63 (54%)Not sure 36 (31%)No 17 (15%)
2021 Q1
2 comments, 246 votes2021 Q2
6 comments, 739 votes- mschuster91, 2021-04-15, about whether AI can replace the human content moderators Facebook relies onYes 45 (37%)Not sure 36 (30%)No 40 (33%)
- mullingitover, 2021-05-06, about AI tutoring as a way to give every student one-on-one teachingYes 58 (49%)Not sure 28 (24%)No 32 (27%)
- PoignardAzur, 2021-06-09, about the release of the open GPT-J-6B language modelYes 65 (53%)Not sure 28 (23%)No 29 (24%)
- KMag, 2021-06-15, about whether Google's AI floorplanning tool means AI now designs chipsYes 34 (26%)Not sure 64 (48%)No 34 (26%)
- username90, 2021-06-24, about AI code generation with the GPT-J-6B language modelYes 118 (90%)Not sure 11 (8%)No 2 (2%)
- qqqwerty, 2021-06-29, about whether GitHub Copilot's code suggestions will meaningfully change programming workYes 72 (63%)Not sure 25 (22%)No 18 (16%)
2021 Q3
7 comments, 870 votes- rowanG077, 2021-07-02, about whether AI can write large software systems, given GitHub Copilot and AI-written textYes 11 (9%)Not sure 34 (27%)No 80 (64%)
- computerex, 2021-07-04, about whether Copilot's text-based approach can lead to general program synthesisYes 67 (54%)Not sure 27 (22%)No 31 (25%)
- Houshalter, 2021-07-06, about whether GitHub Copilot is really intelligent or just a code search engineYes 85 (66%)Not sure 14 (11%)No 29 (23%)
- h0l0cube, 2021-08-04, about whether game development can be automated by AIYes 54 (45%)Not sure 40 (34%)No 25 (21%)
- jonesn11, 2021-08-12, about how well OpenAI Codex handles real programming beyond its demosYes 65 (52%)Not sure 22 (18%)No 38 (30%)
- drooby, 2021-09-15, about whether self-driving on unmapped local roads requires general AIYes 15 (11%)Not sure 64 (48%)No 55 (41%)
- jwommack, 2021-09-22, about an article saying AI writes code like humans, bugs includedYes 78 (68%)Not sure 14 (12%)No 22 (19%)
2021 Q4
7 comments, 853 votes- hutzlibu, 2021-11-25, about what early signs would indicate an approaching AI singularityYes 101 (80%)Not sure 12 (10%)No 13 (10%)
- hutzlibu, 2021-11-26, about early signs of a singularity and whether the Turing test still mattersYes 60 (50%)Not sure 36 (30%)No 24 (20%)
- bryan0, 2021-11-27, about early signs of a singularity and whether the Turing test was already passedYes 44 (36%)Not sure 40 (33%)No 39 (32%)
- genewitch, 2021-11-29, about adversarial image attacks and whether self-driving cars are really coming soonYes 25 (19%)Not sure 18 (14%)No 90 (68%)
- nickpp, 2021-12-02, about why search results are flooded with SEO spam and auto-generated pagesYes 90 (77%)Not sure 13 (11%)No 14 (12%)
- johnisgood, 2021-12-05, about a suicide capsule maker's plan to use AI instead of psychiatrists to assess mental capacityYes 10 (7%)Not sure 36 (26%)No 92 (67%)
- bryan0, 2021-12-16, about whether the Turing test still means anything as a test of AI understandingYes 49 (51%)Not sure 32 (33%)No 15 (16%)
2022 Q1
15 comments, 1,844 votes- Accujack, 2022-01-06, about a US law requiring new cars to detect impaired drivers and limit drivingYes 25 (20%)Not sure 56 (44%)No 46 (36%)
- majormajor, 2022-01-06, about whether 'AI' is a moving target as chatbots keep improvingYes 88 (74%)Not sure 20 (17%)No 11 (9%)
- AstralStorm, 2022-01-14, about whether an AI that reproduced a known theorem-solving algorithm counts as scienceYes 48 (35%)Not sure 45 (33%)No 45 (33%)
- 37ef_ced3, 2022-01-19, about whether coding challenges could work as CAPTCHAs that Copilot can't solveYes 93 (72%)Not sure 32 (25%)No 4 (3%)
- bovermyer, 2022-01-20, about whether AI dubbing could replace foreign-language subtitles in filmsYes 40 (36%)Not sure 41 (37%)No 30 (27%)
- Jasper_, 2022-01-24, about what neural-network AGI would need, and whether self-driving cars can handle social roadsYes 44 (33%)Not sure 50 (38%)No 38 (29%)
- diehunde, 2022-02-02, about whether AlphaCode and Copilot will make programming obsoleteYes 85 (78%)Not sure 16 (15%)No 8 (7%)
- qualudeheart, 2022-02-02, about whether AlphaCode threatens software engineers whose job is solving business problemsYes 26 (21%)Not sure 22 (18%)No 75 (61%)
- bricemo, 2022-02-02, about DeepMind's AlphaCode and whether AI reaches top-1% competitive programming within five yearsYes 58 (49%)Not sure 29 (24%)No 32 (27%)
- ahgamut, 2022-02-02, about whether AlphaCode can solve kinds of programming problems absent from its training dataYes 22 (19%)Not sure 70 (60%)No 24 (21%)
- ensan, 2022-02-02, about DeepMind's AlphaCode solving competitive programming problemsYes 29 (23%)Not sure 36 (28%)No 63 (49%)
- jowday, 2022-02-28, about whether camera-only self-driving cars need human-like scene understanding beyond image recognitionYes 32 (32%)Not sure 40 (40%)No 28 (28%)
- type_enthusiast, 2022-03-04, about a $10,000 bet on whether fully self-driving cars will exist by 2030Yes 33 (29%)Not sure 35 (31%)No 44 (39%)
- Beldin, 2022-03-05, about what AI driving must achieve for fully self-driving cars by 2030Yes 41 (33%)Not sure 43 (34%)No 41 (33%)
- jll29, 2022-03-19, about DARPA's view of AI and how far it is from real intelligenceYes 49 (31%)Not sure 39 (25%)No 68 (44%)
2022 Q2
21 comments, 2,569 votes- virgilp, 2022-04-01, about whether AI goalposts have moved since beating Go was thought to require general intelligenceYes 56 (40%)Not sure 19 (14%)No 65 (46%)
- Rochus, 2022-04-05, about what would make AI-generated music performance convincing to musiciansYes 32 (30%)Not sure 42 (40%)No 31 (30%)
- chrisco255, 2022-04-06, about whether AI like DALL-E 2 signals that CRUD programming will be automatedYes 80 (69%)Not sure 19 (16%)No 17 (15%)
- 6gvONxR4sf7o, 2022-05-07, about whether we will ever agree that generalized AI exists, given that hard problems get solved by clever searchYes 4 (3%)Not sure 16 (13%)No 100 (83%)
- tuatoru, 2022-05-11, about whether robots can handle the physical skill involved in construction workYes 5 (4%)Not sure 10 (8%)No 109 (88%)
- px43, 2022-05-12, about what bar an AI would need to clear to count as AGI, after DeepMind's GatoYes 47 (42%)Not sure 37 (33%)No 28 (25%)
- Jensson, 2022-05-12, about whether a generalist AI like DeepMind's Gato could apply for and hold a jobYes 17 (11%)Not sure 34 (23%)No 98 (66%)
- photochemsyn, 2022-05-20, about which games AI hasn't mastered, and whether it could pass as a D&D playerYes 40 (33%)Not sure 43 (36%)No 37 (31%)
- samtimalsina, 2022-05-24, about a story about AI written by one AI and illustrated by anotherYes 58 (40%)Not sure 49 (34%)No 37 (26%)
- nautilus12, 2022-05-24, about whether humor and irony are what GPT-3 still can't doYes 28 (22%)Not sure 33 (26%)No 64 (51%)
- mark_l_watson, 2022-06-07, about whether embodiment is necessary for AGI, or whether interacting with people is enoughYes 51 (46%)Not sure 31 (28%)No 28 (25%)
- xaduha, 2022-06-12, about whether Tesla's camera-only self-driving lags behind lidar-based robotaxi companiesYes 11 (8%)Not sure 53 (40%)No 68 (52%)
- _olhy, 2022-06-12, about whether LaMDA seeming alive means it is sentient, after a Google engineer's claimYes 14 (12%)Not sure 20 (17%)No 85 (71%)
- tsimionescu, 2022-06-13, about whether LaMDA could be sentient if it fooled a skeptic in a Turing-style testYes 24 (22%)Not sure 25 (23%)No 58 (54%)
- ecshafer, 2022-06-13, about whether sentience is a neuroscience question and how to test chatbots like LaMDA for itYes 34 (33%)Not sure 45 (44%)No 23 (23%)
- mkaic, 2022-06-13, about whether we know enough about sentience to judge if AI like LaMDA is sentientYes 53 (42%)Not sure 22 (17%)No 52 (41%)
- Group_B, 2022-06-13, about whether chatbots are now good enough that people need worry less about dying aloneYes 92 (74%)Not sure 15 (12%)No 18 (14%)
- nradov, 2022-06-18, about whether language models fooling some people means they are close to passing the Turing testYes 24 (21%)Not sure 29 (25%)No 64 (55%)
- dane-pgp, 2022-06-19, about whether Google's LaMDA really passed the Turing test, as an article claimedYes 45 (38%)Not sure 42 (36%)No 31 (26%)
- the_d3f4ult, 2022-06-22, about why AI hasn't replaced highly paid brain surgeons as Alphabet pushes into healthcareYes 3 (2%)Not sure 11 (9%)No 108 (89%)
- paganel, 2022-06-27, about whether AI-generated fake identities will become indistinguishable from real people onlineYes 71 (53%)Not sure 33 (24%)No 31 (23%)
2022 Q3
12 comments, 1,439 votes- zaptrem, 2022-07-13, about whether Google's LaMDA is sentient and how people judge sentience in othersYes 20 (18%)Not sure 50 (45%)No 40 (36%)
- yrgulation, 2022-07-24, about a prediction of when software development jobs will be automatedYes 87 (71%)Not sure 10 (8%)No 26 (21%)
- Traubenfuchs, 2022-08-07, about whether progress in AI and self-driving has stalled, under a story on Uber's lossesYes 51 (53%)Not sure 13 (14%)No 32 (33%)
- hef19898, 2022-08-17, about whether AI-generated art, films and novels will replace human artistsYes 20 (16%)Not sure 39 (30%)No 70 (54%)
- ianceicys, 2022-08-19, about John Carmack's new AGI company Keen Technologies raising $20MYes 17 (15%)Not sure 16 (14%)No 84 (72%)
- ryanSrich, 2022-08-19, about John Carmack's AGI company and whether an AGI could break out of its simulationYes 63 (47%)Not sure 24 (18%)No 48 (36%)
- nradov, 2022-08-20, about how to define AGI concretely, prompted by John Carmack's new AGI companyYes 29 (24%)Not sure 36 (30%)No 57 (47%)
- archagon, 2022-08-22, about whether image generators like Stable Diffusion threaten studios like MarvelYes 14 (13%)Not sure 16 (15%)No 80 (73%)
- dangerwill, 2022-08-25, about how AI-generated fakery and content threaten creative and programming jobsYes 88 (66%)Not sure 23 (17%)No 22 (17%)
- roywiggins, 2022-08-30, about whether image AIs like DALL-E create new things the way human artists doYes 2 (2%)Not sure 45 (36%)No 77 (62%)
- Retric, 2022-08-30, about whether automation leaves room for a long tail of human creatorsYes 54 (51%)Not sure 25 (24%)No 26 (25%)
- roywiggins, 2022-08-30, about whether DALL-E can innovate the way artists like van Gogh didYes 17 (13%)Not sure 53 (39%)No 65 (48%)
2022 Q4
24 comments, 3,000 votes- imglorp, 2022-10-01, about whether AI will replace software developersYes 34 (24%)Not sure 32 (23%)No 74 (53%)
- thwayunion, 2022-10-12, about whether language models should be expected to do math at allYes 97 (85%)Not sure 10 (9%)No 7 (6%)
- nuker, 2022-10-16, about whether self-driving cars need reasoning that ML systems lackYes 40 (36%)Not sure 27 (24%)No 44 (40%)
- oldstrangers, 2022-10-21, about how AI text generators will change education and student learningYes 85 (65%)Not sure 20 (15%)No 25 (19%)
- ec109685, 2022-10-31, about whether humans are good drivers, in a thread on Tesla dropping radar and ultrasonic sensorsYes 53 (40%)Not sure 34 (25%)No 47 (35%)
- jakeinspace, 2022-11-01, about how to measure progress toward artificial general intelligence with benchmarksYes 51 (42%)Not sure 29 (24%)No 41 (34%)
- giancarlostoro, 2022-11-01, about the AI effect and what people would actually count as AIYes 33 (31%)Not sure 26 (24%)No 49 (45%)
- dinkblam, 2022-11-13, about whether language models like GPT-3 are nearly AGI and critics keep shifting the barYes 93 (70%)Not sure 23 (17%)No 16 (12%)
- bscphil, 2022-11-17, about research claiming to reconstruct images people see from non-invasive brain scansYes 8 (6%)Not sure 44 (35%)No 74 (59%)
- darepublic, 2022-12-04, about whether AI placing first in Advent of Code takes the fun out of programmingYes 63 (50%)Not sure 16 (13%)No 46 (37%)
- dvt, 2022-12-04, about whether ChatGPT is intelligent, prompted by a git repo written entirely by itYes 97 (84%)Not sure 14 (12%)No 5 (4%)
- Arch-TK, 2022-12-04, about whether ChatGPT can write Linux kernel device driversYes 123 (84%)Not sure 18 (12%)No 5 (3%)
- sumtechguy, 2022-12-05, about whether AI-assisted coding is the start of the end of software development jobsYes 97 (83%)Not sure 8 (7%)No 12 (10%)
- inopinatus, 2022-12-06, about whether nitpicking ChatGPT's failings misses how fast AI is progressingYes 30 (24%)Not sure 51 (41%)No 42 (34%)
- dylan604, 2022-12-06, about AI voice modification making call center workers sound AmericanYes 89 (74%)Not sure 15 (12%)No 16 (13%)
- gsail11, 2022-12-07, about how ChatGPT will affect software careers and junior developersYes 117 (85%)Not sure 10 (7%)No 10 (7%)
- constantcrying, 2022-12-11, about whether Copilot-style tools threaten programmers or are just like Stack OverflowYes 90 (71%)Not sure 18 (14%)No 19 (15%)
- contravariant, 2022-12-12, about whether HN should ban comments generated by ChatGPTYes 50 (38%)Not sure 38 (29%)No 42 (32%)
- GoblinSlayer, 2022-12-15, about whether AI-generated code that is 95% right is good enough, amid AI art fightsYes 94 (80%)Not sure 15 (13%)No 9 (8%)
- runarberg, 2022-12-17, about whether ChatGPT's attempts to explain jokes show it understands humorYes 72 (63%)Not sure 23 (20%)No 19 (17%)
- borbulon, 2022-12-19, about a claim that AI will soon take over software engineeringYes 75 (61%)Not sure 21 (17%)No 26 (21%)
- dublin, 2022-12-20, about configuring firewalls such as pfSense and OPNsenseYes 80 (65%)Not sure 27 (22%)No 17 (14%)
- mannykannot, 2022-12-25, about whether the Turing test is a good criterion for machine understandingYes 58 (47%)Not sure 30 (24%)No 36 (29%)
- remarkEon, 2022-12-25, about whether AI answer engines summarizing news will undercut news outlets and original reportingYes 33 (23%)Not sure 69 (49%)No 39 (28%)
2023 Q1
78 comments, 9,450 votes- denton-scratch, 2023-01-03, about an AI tool that summarizes legal documents such as Google's termsYes 109 (85%)Not sure 16 (12%)No 3 (2%)
- lolinder, 2023-01-04, about whether ChatGPT in Bing would be useful if it could say "I don't know"Yes 33 (29%)Not sure 40 (35%)No 41 (36%)
- zone411, 2023-01-05, about which problems would be easy for a superhuman AGI but very hard for humansYes 69 (48%)Not sure 25 (17%)No 49 (34%)
- pavlov, 2023-01-07, about Gary Marcus's skepticism that ChatGPT understands, e.g. a robot tidying a roomYes 37 (29%)Not sure 39 (31%)No 50 (40%)
- purpleblue, 2023-01-12, about whether a GPT-3-like model trained on astronomy research could explain anomaliesYes 122 (91%)Not sure 9 (7%)No 3 (2%)
- _Algernon_, 2023-01-12, about whether a GPT-3-like model trained on astronomy research could answer open cosmology questionsYes 85 (72%)Not sure 26 (22%)No 7 (6%)
- random_upvoter, 2023-01-13, about whether ChatGPT-written essays harm education and how deep its knowledge really runsYes 40 (31%)Not sure 20 (16%)No 67 (53%)
- zactato, 2023-01-20, about a tool that uses GPT-3 to write git commit messages automaticallyYes 111 (81%)Not sure 15 (11%)No 11 (8%)
- dragonwriter, 2023-01-20, about a tool that uses GPT-3 to write git commit messages automaticallyYes 106 (79%)Not sure 16 (12%)No 12 (9%)
- zephrx1111, 2023-01-20, about the worry that an AI might fail the Turing test on purposeYes 31 (26%)Not sure 58 (48%)No 32 (26%)
- squidbot, 2023-01-22, about whether AI program generation like ChatGPT threatens software developers' jobsYes 44 (34%)Not sure 32 (24%)No 55 (42%)
- nostromo123, 2023-01-22, about what ChatGPT and AI code generation mean for software engineering jobsYes 43 (33%)Not sure 53 (41%)No 33 (26%)
- iLoveOncall, 2023-01-22, about whether ChatGPT can challenge Google search despite often being wrongYes 85 (65%)Not sure 16 (12%)No 29 (22%)
- kieselguhr_kid, 2023-01-25, about whether GPT prompts can replace SQL analysts and software developersYes 65 (49%)Not sure 24 (18%)No 43 (33%)
- AnimalMuppet, 2023-01-25, about an article claiming human-level AI translation by 2030 would mean the singularityYes 80 (65%)Not sure 21 (17%)No 23 (19%)
- bcbrown, 2023-01-26, about whether GPT-written tests passing on the first try shows they are good testsYes 89 (78%)Not sure 18 (16%)No 7 (6%)
- dinkumthinkum, 2023-01-26, about whether ChatGPT's answers to silly prompts mean it could handle real legal casesYes 66 (58%)Not sure 32 (28%)No 16 (14%)
- tremon, 2023-01-26, about Marines beating a DARPA robot by hiding under a box, and AI lacking common senseYes 66 (57%)Not sure 37 (32%)No 12 (10%)
- hbrn, 2023-01-26, about whether ChatGPT has no thought of its own and only predicts likely responsesYes 53 (43%)Not sure 24 (19%)No 47 (38%)
- gamblor956, 2023-01-26, about an AI lawyer that was blocked from arguing in courtYes 34 (27%)Not sure 42 (33%)No 50 (40%)
- andrewstuart, 2023-01-27, about whether ChatGPT can summarize a big, unfamiliar codebaseYes 77 (66%)Not sure 23 (20%)No 17 (15%)
- josephg, 2023-01-29, about what benchmark for human-level AI people would still accept once it is beatenYes 64 (51%)Not sure 34 (27%)No 28 (22%)
- logarhythmic, 2023-01-29, about whether AI will soon overcome the difficulties of software engineeringYes 88 (77%)Not sure 10 (9%)No 17 (15%)
- airbreather, 2023-01-31, about what programming languages are for once AI can write all codeYes 40 (33%)Not sure 24 (20%)No 56 (47%)
- HarHarVeryFunny, 2023-02-03, about whether ChatGPT really knows things or just makes them upYes 56 (41%)Not sure 33 (24%)No 47 (35%)
- bjackman, 2023-02-04, about DocsGPT, an open-source AI assistant that answers questions from library documentationYes 89 (84%)Not sure 9 (8%)No 8 (8%)
- pixl97, 2023-02-04, about whether headlines about ChatGPT passing tests and interviews mean anythingYes 12 (11%)Not sure 25 (22%)No 76 (67%)
- jhoelzel, 2023-02-07, about whether AI coding assistants like Copilot work beyond simple, context-free functionsYes 90 (80%)Not sure 7 (6%)No 15 (13%)
- hot_gril, 2023-02-07, about whether AI can be funny, after an AI Seinfeld show was banned for its jokesYes 31 (26%)Not sure 21 (18%)No 67 (56%)
- userbinator, 2023-02-07, about Microsoft launching a new Bing search powered by an upgraded ChatGPTYes 41 (39%)Not sure 52 (50%)No 12 (11%)
- quaestio, 2023-02-09, about AI fatigue and whether ChatGPT is reliable enough for engineering workYes 29 (23%)Not sure 29 (23%)No 66 (53%)
- pegasus, 2023-02-10, about whether large language models show theory of mind, and how to test one-shot learningYes 14 (13%)Not sure 31 (29%)No 63 (58%)
- hawkesnest, 2023-02-10, about whether ChatGPT could replace human programming mentorsYes 65 (59%)Not sure 12 (11%)No 34 (31%)
- gfodor, 2023-02-13, about a Clojure DSL for full-stack web UIs and whether it could help AI write appsYes 94 (90%)Not sure 9 (9%)No 1 (1%)
- WoodenChair, 2023-02-15, about whether humans are just more advanced next-word predictors, as Bing chat is said to beYes 11 (9%)Not sure 14 (12%)No 91 (78%)
- imiric, 2023-02-19, about whether GPT-style AI makes design tools and web pages outdatedYes 57 (57%)Not sure 16 (16%)No 27 (27%)
- mcv, 2023-02-19, about what it would take for an AI to convince people it is consciousYes 83 (69%)Not sure 18 (15%)No 20 (17%)
- RC_ITR, 2023-02-21, about whether GPT multiplying 4-digit numbers would show it learned arithmeticYes 52 (50%)Not sure 31 (30%)No 21 (20%)
- knaik94, 2023-02-26, about how realistic AI-generated audio like AudioLM can becomeYes 48 (39%)Not sure 30 (25%)No 44 (36%)
- rnosov, 2023-02-28, about what evidence would convince someone that an AI is sentientYes 82 (64%)Not sure 25 (20%)No 21 (16%)
- resource0x, 2023-03-07, about whether the Turing test is still the real goalpost for AGIYes 83 (66%)Not sure 19 (15%)No 23 (18%)
- ghaff, 2023-03-09, about computer vision in manufacturing versus robots that do household choresYes 5 (4%)Not sure 8 (6%)No 113 (90%)
- nopinsight, 2023-03-14, about GPT-4 acing standardized exams but struggling with competitive programming and AMCYes 79 (68%)Not sure 28 (24%)No 9 (8%)
- audunw, 2023-03-14, about whether GPT-4's better test scores mean fewer confidently wrong answersYes 21 (17%)Not sure 38 (31%)No 63 (52%)
- nradov, 2023-03-14, about whether people are moving the goalposts on AGI after GPT-4's releaseYes 37 (34%)Not sure 48 (44%)No 24 (22%)
- Jevon23, 2023-03-14, about whether people are moving the goalposts on AGI as GPT-4 arrivesYes 15 (11%)Not sure 22 (16%)No 101 (73%)
- camjohnson26, 2023-03-14, about whether GPT-4 getting good at math should worry people more than its exam scores doYes 26 (23%)Not sure 37 (33%)No 48 (43%)
- TaupeRanger, 2023-03-14, about whether skeptics keep moving the goalposts as GPT-4 improvesYes 49 (36%)Not sure 30 (22%)No 56 (41%)
- JTyQZSnP3cQGa8B, 2023-03-14, about whether GPT-4 writing code from pasted specs makes software engineers unnecessaryYes 52 (39%)Not sure 29 (22%)No 53 (40%)
- RC_ITR, 2023-03-14, about whether Othello-GPT shows that LLMs learn world models rather than just statisticsYes 24 (21%)Not sure 83 (71%)No 10 (9%)
- nine_k, 2023-03-15, about an AI posing as a human online, after GPT-4 hired a TaskRabbit workerYes 70 (58%)Not sure 31 (26%)No 19 (16%)
- stefl14, 2023-03-15, about whether transformers being Turing complete means LLMs can learn real algorithmsYes 62 (61%)Not sure 29 (28%)No 11 (11%)
- nradov, 2023-03-15, about how to define AGI when nobody agrees on what the term meansYes 33 (29%)Not sure 28 (25%)No 51 (46%)
- wizofaus, 2023-03-15, about whether LLMs like GPT-4 are general enough to count as AGIYes 101 (74%)Not sure 17 (12%)No 18 (13%)
- yosito, 2023-03-17, about testing GPT-4's code-writing ability on real-world problemsYes 113 (82%)Not sure 9 (7%)No 15 (11%)
- qlm, 2023-03-17, about whether language models truly understand things or only generate plausible textYes 4 (3%)Not sure 31 (27%)No 80 (70%)
- qlm, 2023-03-17, about whether LLMs truly understand things or can invent things the way humans doYes 37 (31%)Not sure 42 (35%)No 42 (35%)
- marcosdumay, 2023-03-19, about whether AI will reduce how many software developers are neededYes 41 (31%)Not sure 28 (21%)No 64 (48%)
- sarchertech, 2023-03-20, about whether AI will automate founders' work as well as software engineers'Yes 30 (29%)Not sure 23 (22%)No 52 (50%)
- HeavyFeather, 2023-03-22, about ChatGPT submitting a pull request to Rails and whether that is ordinaryYes 82 (68%)Not sure 12 (10%)No 26 (22%)
- tylerhou, 2023-03-22, about whether AI models could be used to invert hash functionsYes 50 (38%)Not sure 53 (41%)No 27 (21%)
- bsder, 2023-03-23, about whether LLMs could make programming interesting again by handling boilerplateYes 93 (83%)Not sure 9 (8%)No 10 (9%)
- raydev, 2023-03-24, about whether AI tutors in ChatGPT plugins will revolutionize educationYes 27 (21%)Not sure 29 (23%)No 70 (56%)
- milemi, 2023-03-25, about whether GPT-4 beating humans at coding competition tasks means it can really programYes 89 (65%)Not sure 28 (21%)No 19 (14%)
- yamrzou, 2023-03-26, about an essay arguing that ChatGPT really understands, despite skepticsYes 43 (39%)Not sure 50 (45%)No 18 (16%)
- Alex3917, 2023-03-26, about whether AI-generated marketing campaigns and emails are impressive or just genericYes 25 (19%)Not sure 71 (53%)No 37 (28%)
- topper-123, 2023-03-26, about a GPT-4 summary of Charlie Munger's views on moats and whether its quotes are realYes 89 (61%)Not sure 27 (19%)No 29 (20%)
- OutbackWizard, 2023-03-26, about a GPT-4 reverse Turing test and how well ChatGPT mimics humansYes 50 (45%)Not sure 49 (44%)No 12 (11%)
- civilized, 2023-03-26, about whether ChatGPT understands math, prompted by the essay "And yet It Understands"Yes 65 (59%)Not sure 31 (28%)No 14 (13%)
- snickerbockers, 2023-03-26, about whether ChatGPT should hand off tasks like arithmetic to specialized toolsYes 55 (49%)Not sure 20 (18%)No 37 (33%)
- rglover, 2023-03-26, about whether LLMs are just word predictors or fundamentally different from humansYes 75 (61%)Not sure 29 (24%)No 18 (15%)
- osigurdson, 2023-03-27, about whether tech layoffs are driven by hopes that AI will replace employeesYes 32 (25%)Not sure 25 (20%)No 69 (55%)
- smt88, 2023-03-27, about whether LLMs like ChatGPT can build non-trivial things, after a Wozniak AI-anxiety interviewYes 30 (30%)Not sure 25 (25%)No 46 (46%)
- lisasays, 2023-03-28, about whether LLM translations are good enough to use without human correctionYes 63 (55%)Not sure 27 (24%)No 24 (21%)
- visarga, 2023-03-28, about whether LLMs that can write and train new LLMs are effectively self-replicatingYes 10 (8%)Not sure 24 (19%)No 92 (73%)
- quickthrower2, 2023-03-29, about whether learning a programming language still makes sense given AIYes 29 (23%)Not sure 23 (18%)No 76 (59%)
- spaceman_2020, 2023-03-30, about whether LLMs will soon autonomously design, code and distribute whole appsYes 98 (80%)Not sure 15 (12%)No 9 (7%)
- alienicecream, 2023-03-31, about whether language models trained to mimic text can achieve insight or general AIYes 13 (11%)Not sure 37 (30%)No 73 (59%)
2023 Q2
29 comments, 3,511 votes- deafpolygon, 2023-04-06, about whether AI will replace software engineers, given the job is mostly communicationYes 82 (63%)Not sure 22 (17%)No 26 (20%)
- cornholio, 2023-04-11, about AI agents simulating human behavior and telling simulacra from sentient AIYes 51 (41%)Not sure 18 (15%)No 55 (44%)
- NickC25, 2023-04-12, about an AI voice-cloning kidnapping scam and whether we need ways to verify real humansYes 30 (24%)Not sure 57 (46%)No 37 (30%)
- The_Colonel, 2023-04-14, about whether GPT can catch its own logical fallacies, given Brandolini's lawYes 70 (51%)Not sure 31 (23%)No 36 (26%)
- RandomLensman, 2023-04-20, about whether ChatGPT can reason and apply knowledge, or is nowhere near AGIYes 30 (29%)Not sure 58 (55%)No 17 (16%)
- crakenzak, 2023-04-24, about whether LLMs learn new facts at inference time or lose them beyond the context windowYes 12 (10%)Not sure 30 (24%)No 81 (66%)
- celdon25, 2023-04-26, about whether AI is fundamentally defective until it can say where it learned thingsYes 16 (14%)Not sure 22 (19%)No 76 (67%)
- celdon25, 2023-04-26, about whether LLMs can explain their reasoning and cite sources the way an AGI shouldYes 62 (51%)Not sure 26 (21%)No 34 (28%)
- srslack, 2023-05-01, about whether GPT-4 running under AutoGPT could take control, after Hinton's danger warningYes 29 (25%)Not sure 42 (36%)No 45 (39%)
- PaulDavisThe1st, 2023-05-01, about whether LLMs really reason when they solve math word problemsYes 79 (67%)Not sure 22 (19%)No 17 (14%)
- nradov, 2023-05-01, about whether Microsoft's "Sparks of AGI" paper shows GPT-4 nearing general intelligenceYes 60 (51%)Not sure 34 (29%)No 23 (20%)
- ux-app, 2023-05-02, about the commenter's bar for a tech singularity: an AI that cleans a toiletYes 16 (11%)Not sure 27 (19%)No 97 (69%)
- danShumway, 2023-05-02, about whether prompt injection matters compared to aligning far more powerful future AIYes 34 (28%)Not sure 41 (34%)No 45 (38%)
- ckemere, 2023-05-03, about DeepMind's CEO saying some form of AGI is possible within a few yearsYes 58 (42%)Not sure 30 (22%)No 50 (36%)
- canadiantim, 2023-05-06, about an AI tool that makes realistic architectural renders from AutoCAD and BlenderYes 63 (53%)Not sure 38 (32%)No 18 (15%)
- phillipseamore, 2023-05-11, about a live AI-based global weather forecast shown on Show HNYes 21 (18%)Not sure 62 (52%)No 37 (31%)
- kmac_, 2023-05-13, about whether large language models show emergent intelligence or just statisticsYes 79 (77%)Not sure 9 (9%)No 15 (15%)
- agentultra, 2023-05-16, about whether next-token prediction gives LLMs real mathematical reasoningYes 92 (71%)Not sure 28 (22%)No 10 (8%)
- simonh, 2023-05-16, about whether the field now requires an embodied Turing test for AIYes 28 (31%)Not sure 33 (37%)No 29 (32%)
- alienicecream, 2023-05-26, about whether GPT-4 really counts or just outputs plausible-sounding answersYes 84 (65%)Not sure 36 (28%)No 9 (7%)
- LightBug1, 2023-05-28, about whether the commenter would let a car drive itself if it drove better than themYes 30 (28%)Not sure 20 (18%)No 59 (54%)
- endisneigh, 2023-06-06, about tips for coding with ChatGPT, and whether writing code is the real bottleneckYes 51 (40%)Not sure 26 (20%)No 51 (40%)
- zirgs, 2023-06-11, about whether generative AI makes learning programming or music pointlessYes 42 (34%)Not sure 40 (33%)No 40 (33%)
- XorNot, 2023-06-14, about whether training AI on filtered synthetic data could produce better modelsYes 35 (30%)Not sure 50 (43%)No 31 (27%)
- tarmol, 2023-06-15, about a veteran engineer's fear that GPT-4 threatens their job securityYes 21 (18%)Not sure 21 (18%)No 73 (63%)
- timacles, 2023-06-15, about whether AI will replace programming languages and write all code within 20 yearsYes 93 (68%)Not sure 28 (21%)No 15 (11%)
- 8chanAnon, 2023-06-17, about fatigue with AI chat products and their tendency to hallucinateYes 63 (56%)Not sure 15 (13%)No 34 (30%)
- tremon, 2023-06-22, about testable hypotheses for how LLMs differ from human mindsYes 48 (35%)Not sure 34 (25%)No 54 (40%)
- abhaynayar, 2023-06-30, about whether worries about hyperpersuasive AI are justifiedYes 18 (15%)Not sure 38 (32%)No 62 (53%)
2023 Q3
25 comments, 3,045 votes- Tainnor, 2023-07-03, about whether GPT-4 writing working scripts means programmers won't write code in 10 yearsYes 113 (87%)Not sure 12 (9%)No 5 (4%)
- Slartie, 2023-07-04, about whether GPT-4 writing scripts means people will stop writing code within ten yearsYes 53 (39%)Not sure 46 (34%)No 36 (27%)
- sillysaurusx, 2023-07-07, about Mechanical Turk workers using AI to automate their tasksYes 44 (42%)Not sure 38 (37%)No 22 (21%)
- aurareturn, 2023-07-10, about how well Copilot works in daily coding and how much context it usesYes 65 (58%)Not sure 25 (22%)No 22 (20%)
- bumby, 2023-07-11, about whether LLMs' weaker performance on counterfactual tasks like base-8 arithmetic shows a lack of reasoningYes 53 (44%)Not sure 50 (41%)No 18 (15%)
- PrimeMcFly, 2023-07-14, about whether AI-generated entertainment will shrink the movie and TV industriesYes 60 (47%)Not sure 26 (20%)No 42 (33%)
- villgax, 2023-07-19, about an Nvidia driver release and what would truly test LLM codingYes 13 (12%)Not sure 75 (70%)No 19 (18%)
- thesuperbigfrog, 2023-07-20, about Google testing an AI tool called Genesis that writes news articlesYes 58 (47%)Not sure 17 (14%)No 49 (40%)
- Shawnj2, 2023-07-22, about whether Hollywood writers striking over AI are right to fear replacementYes 19 (17%)Not sure 21 (19%)No 69 (63%)
- 13years, 2023-07-27, about whether banning ChatGPT in schools is like banning calculators in the 80sYes 23 (19%)Not sure 23 (19%)No 72 (61%)
- hardware2win, 2023-08-11, about an essay arguing AI will not undergo a sudden hard takeoffYes 18 (16%)Not sure 56 (50%)No 38 (34%)
- skepticATX, 2023-08-11, about how we could tell that artificial general intelligence has been reachedYes 11 (9%)Not sure 16 (12%)No 101 (79%)
- wizofaus, 2023-08-11, about what would count as AGI, such as learning to drive like a humanYes 72 (51%)Not sure 23 (16%)No 46 (33%)
- worrycue, 2023-08-25, about whether LLMs reason or only memorise, given that they hallucinateYes 39 (29%)Not sure 32 (24%)No 63 (47%)
- Art9681, 2023-08-26, about whether cheap open coding models like CodeLlama threaten software engineering jobsYes 27 (21%)Not sure 36 (28%)No 66 (51%)
- saurik, 2023-08-27, about whether critics of AI are moving the goalposts on what counts as intelligenceYes 59 (49%)Not sure 27 (22%)No 35 (29%)
- kortilla, 2023-08-29, about whether ChatGPT Enterprise output can be trusted given hallucinationsYes 17 (15%)Not sure 14 (12%)No 86 (74%)
- crazygringo, 2023-09-03, about why AI can't replace actors, as SAG-AFTRA's strike expands to video gamesYes 27 (20%)Not sure 31 (23%)No 78 (57%)
- mlhpdx, 2023-09-11, about whether Project Gutenberg's AI-narrated audiobooks are high qualityYes 35 (31%)Not sure 51 (45%)No 27 (24%)
- nradov, 2023-09-18, about whether AI can replace human fighter pilots, after a pilot ejected from an F-35Yes 19 (15%)Not sure 40 (32%)No 67 (53%)
- modeless, 2023-09-19, about Bard's new ability to search a user's Gmail and Google DriveYes 67 (63%)Not sure 26 (25%)No 13 (12%)
- ryandrake, 2023-09-20, about AI generating new episodes and albums of discontinued shows and bandsYes 13 (11%)Not sure 20 (17%)No 88 (73%)
- kevinventullo, 2023-09-21, about whether algorithmic discoveries in mathematics count without proofs or understandingYes 17 (15%)Not sure 46 (41%)No 50 (44%)
- WendyTheWillow, 2023-09-25, about whether ChatGPT's new voice and image features threaten software developers' jobsYes 117 (87%)Not sure 13 (10%)No 5 (4%)
- xbpx, 2023-09-29, about a guide to web scraping with ChatGPTYes 103 (82%)Not sure 15 (12%)No 7 (6%)
2023 Q4
44 comments, 5,315 votes- karmakaze, 2023-10-03, about Bing Chat being tricked into solving a CAPTCHA with a dead-grandma locket storyYes 32 (31%)Not sure 48 (47%)No 22 (22%)
- joegibbs, 2023-10-05, about whether coding will still exist as a profession in five yearsYes 61 (54%)Not sure 17 (15%)No 35 (31%)
- Sakos, 2023-10-16, about GPT-4V reading an image whose "attack while its tail is up" advice is wrongYes 25 (23%)Not sure 78 (72%)No 6 (6%)
- kridsdale1, 2023-10-18, about whether AI can animate human movement without falling into the uncanny valleyYes 53 (38%)Not sure 34 (25%)No 51 (37%)
- __loam, 2023-10-28, about whether LLMs trained on books could replace reading them, for copyright purposesYes 12 (9%)Not sure 14 (10%)No 109 (81%)
- nradov, 2023-11-01, about whether AI could replace airline pilots, especially in emergenciesYes 19 (18%)Not sure 25 (24%)No 62 (58%)
- dom96, 2023-11-05, about ChatGPT defeating email address obfuscation on websitesYes 77 (64%)Not sure 33 (28%)No 10 (8%)
- SkyMarshal, 2023-11-09, about an AI tool that summarizes arXiv papers and whether abstracts already do thatYes 76 (62%)Not sure 34 (28%)No 13 (11%)
- Barrin92, 2023-11-14, about whether ChatGPT counts as a general system in a paper on levels of AGIYes 20 (17%)Not sure 23 (19%)No 77 (64%)
- thaanpaa, 2023-11-14, about whether AI coding tools mean the end of programming as a craftYes 91 (76%)Not sure 17 (14%)No 11 (9%)
- dartos, 2023-11-14, about an LLM-based agent that performs hundreds of tasks in MinecraftYes 42 (37%)Not sure 50 (44%)No 22 (19%)
- nradov, 2023-11-17, about whether LLMs could maintain legacy software such as the Pentagon's accounting systemsYes 23 (22%)Not sure 38 (36%)No 44 (42%)
- morsecodist, 2023-11-18, about whether GPT-4 is already AGI with human-level reasoningYes 30 (25%)Not sure 23 (19%)No 68 (56%)
- ric2b, 2023-11-18, about whether GPT-4 is already AGI rather than a parroting machineYes 59 (50%)Not sure 35 (30%)No 24 (20%)
- scarmig, 2023-11-18, about whether an AI must prove something like the Riemann Hypothesis to show understandingYes 80 (63%)Not sure 27 (21%)No 19 (15%)
- civilized, 2023-11-18, about what separates humans from LLMs in Hinton's "glorified autocomplete" debateYes 55 (46%)Not sure 35 (29%)No 30 (25%)
- Eggpants, 2023-11-18, about Geoff Hinton's view that LLMs are more than glorified autocompleteYes 16 (15%)Not sure 27 (25%)No 65 (60%)
- ajuc, 2023-11-21, about whether AI imitating an artist's style is comparable to human artists studying itYes 50 (43%)Not sure 35 (30%)No 32 (27%)
- hn_throwaway_99, 2023-11-23, about GPT-4 Turbo's better multi-digit arithmetic and whether LLMs truly reason about mathYes 43 (39%)Not sure 37 (33%)No 31 (28%)
- lamontcg, 2023-11-23, about reports that OpenAI's Q* model solved grade-school math problemsYes 67 (54%)Not sure 19 (15%)No 37 (30%)
- gryfft, 2023-11-23, about whether OpenAI's economic-value definition of AGI is a fair measure of intelligenceYes 10 (7%)Not sure 23 (16%)No 109 (77%)
- wbhart, 2023-11-23, about whether LLMs plus backtracking search could prove mathematical theorems, after OpenAI's rumored breakthroughYes 65 (58%)Not sure 36 (32%)No 12 (11%)
- pegasus, 2023-11-23, about whether generative AI can produce consistent movie-quality video of 3D worldsYes 52 (45%)Not sure 18 (16%)No 45 (39%)
- trashtester, 2023-11-24, about whether the first self-improving AI would gain an unbeatable leadYes 9 (7%)Not sure 27 (21%)No 90 (71%)
- anonylizard, 2023-11-27, about a $10M prize for an AI winning gold at the math olympiadYes 83 (73%)Not sure 22 (19%)No 9 (8%)
- still_grokking, 2023-11-29, about AI dev tools at Google that reportedly generate more code than humansYes 88 (65%)Not sure 23 (17%)No 24 (18%)
- still_grokking, 2023-11-29, about whether AI tools can safely delete and simplify code in large codebasesYes 36 (28%)Not sure 40 (31%)No 51 (40%)
- pixl97, 2023-11-30, about whether seemingly small problems like self-driving require general intelligenceYes 19 (13%)Not sure 26 (18%)No 102 (69%)
- KPGv2, 2023-12-02, about whether a real-time "Babel Fish" translator is feasible, following Meta's Seamless speech modelsYes 62 (49%)Not sure 49 (39%)No 16 (13%)
- Eridrus, 2023-12-04, about whether GPT-4 is useful for writing AWS IAM policies, under an IAM tool launchYes 73 (59%)Not sure 42 (34%)No 8 (7%)
- nradov, 2023-12-05, about whether LLMs will take over most of the mental work done by doctorsYes 32 (29%)Not sure 43 (39%)No 34 (31%)
- dogmatism, 2023-12-05, about whether LLMs will take over most of the mental work doctors doYes 86 (64%)Not sure 36 (27%)No 12 (9%)
- modeless, 2023-12-05, about whether LLMs can help with diagnosis when patient data is scattered across officesYes 46 (35%)Not sure 55 (42%)No 29 (22%)
- galaxyLogic, 2023-12-07, about Gemini Pro failing a puzzle about how many sisters a girl hasYes 77 (60%)Not sure 30 (23%)No 21 (16%)
- Jensson, 2023-12-10, about which tasks LLMs still fail more often than average humans doYes 62 (48%)Not sure 29 (23%)No 37 (29%)
- rmbyrro, 2023-12-12, about whether AI will make the supply of software effectively infiniteYes 74 (60%)Not sure 16 (13%)No 34 (27%)
- cornel_io, 2023-12-13, about whether AI could start a self-improving chain reaction, like nuclear fissionYes 57 (43%)Not sure 41 (31%)No 34 (26%)
- tim333, 2023-12-13, about Tesla's history of full self-driving promises and whether only edge cases remainYes 28 (26%)Not sure 52 (49%)No 26 (25%)
- zer0c00ler, 2023-12-14, about Andrej Karpathy's view of LLM hallucinations and how far to trust LLM outputYes 60 (51%)Not sure 19 (16%)No 39 (33%)
- samirillian, 2023-12-14, about an essay by an AI skeptic admitting they were wrongYes 46 (38%)Not sure 45 (38%)No 29 (24%)
- eastof, 2023-12-14, about whether AI meets the definition of AGI as doing anything a human can doYes 6 (4%)Not sure 48 (36%)No 80 (60%)
- taylodl, 2023-12-18, about whether AI is on a trajectory to surpass human intelligenceYes 1 (1%)Not sure 16 (15%)No 92 (84%)
- Buttons840, 2023-12-24, about whether the Turing test turned out to be a bad metric for AIYes 42 (34%)Not sure 48 (39%)No 33 (27%)
- mattdesl, 2023-12-28, about the NYT lawsuit showing GPT can repeat copyrighted articles word for wordYes 29 (28%)Not sure 50 (49%)No 24 (23%)
2024 Q1
32 comments, 3,935 votes- brucethemoose2, 2024-01-02, about how generative AI threatens the income of furry artistsYes 37 (29%)Not sure 45 (36%)No 44 (35%)
- pjmlp, 2024-01-02, about whether LLMs had made programmers obsolete by 2024, as some fearedYes 28 (23%)Not sure 35 (28%)No 61 (49%)
- int_19h, 2024-01-05, about whether open models rival GPT-3.5, after an amateur's 7B model topped leaderboardsYes 89 (71%)Not sure 28 (22%)No 9 (7%)
- golol, 2024-01-08, about what definition of AGI computers haven't already metYes 25 (22%)Not sure 41 (36%)No 49 (43%)
- CuriouslyC, 2024-01-20, about AI researchers expecting AI-generated fakes to become undetectableYes 21 (21%)Not sure 18 (18%)No 62 (61%)
- londons_explore, 2024-02-08, about whether AI can spot mistakes in its own training dataYes 38 (34%)Not sure 49 (44%)No 24 (22%)
- choilive, 2024-02-15, about Gemini 1.5's 10M-token context window and whether huge contexts are usefulYes 13 (10%)Not sure 33 (26%)No 82 (64%)
- ThePhysicist, 2024-02-19, about how people with mainly digital creative skills should plan for AI replacing themYes 56 (48%)Not sure 28 (24%)No 33 (28%)
- xnorswap, 2024-02-19, about why asking LLMs to generate prime numbers is a useful testYes 30 (29%)Not sure 29 (28%)No 44 (43%)
- chx, 2024-02-19, about whether LLMs reason or just do statistical optimization, given their gullibilityYes 71 (61%)Not sure 25 (22%)No 20 (17%)
- gfodor, 2024-02-21, about whether AI models like Sora training on art should be treated like human learnersYes 66 (53%)Not sure 43 (34%)No 16 (13%)
- wakawaka28, 2024-02-26, about whether AI could cheaply rewrite legacy software in memory-safe languagesYes 77 (63%)Not sure 18 (15%)No 28 (23%)
- dmitrygr, 2024-02-26, about what would count as a meaningful step towards AGIYes 64 (54%)Not sure 40 (34%)No 14 (12%)
- kjreact, 2024-02-27, about whether anyone has built a truly fully autonomous carYes 31 (23%)Not sure 27 (20%)No 78 (57%)
- onlyrealcuzzo, 2024-02-28, about what AI must do before most human work is unnecessaryYes 2 (2%)Not sure 9 (7%)No 115 (91%)
- magic_hamster, 2024-03-02, about whether AI-generated games will make learning game programming pointlessYes 19 (16%)Not sure 16 (13%)No 85 (71%)
- magic_hamster, 2024-03-02, about whether AI will generate complete movies and games within two years after SoraYes 7 (5%)Not sure 17 (13%)No 109 (82%)
- bufferoverflow, 2024-03-05, about whether LLMs should hand arithmetic to calculators or get smart enough to do itYes 67 (49%)Not sure 37 (27%)No 34 (25%)
- gtirloni, 2024-03-05, about whether generative AI lets developers skip learning the skills they are tested forYes 63 (50%)Not sure 29 (23%)No 35 (28%)
- kromem, 2024-03-12, about how close AGI is, and how its definition changes the answerYes 38 (29%)Not sure 27 (21%)No 64 (50%)
- IncreasePosts, 2024-03-12, about whether AI getting top scores on AP tests makes it AGIYes 61 (55%)Not sure 17 (15%)No 33 (30%)
- HarHarVeryFunny, 2024-03-12, about Devin, the AI software engineer, and whether AI can replace developersYes 16 (13%)Not sure 23 (18%)No 86 (69%)
- HarHarVeryFunny, 2024-03-13, about whether AI can do a developer's whole job, not just codingYes 42 (32%)Not sure 20 (15%)No 71 (53%)
- huytersd, 2024-03-13, about whether the Figure 01 robot demo is real-time LLM control or predefined actionsYes 62 (53%)Not sure 31 (26%)No 25 (21%)
- Retr0id, 2024-03-16, about whether language models like ChatGPT can understand or generate images and ASCII artYes 63 (45%)Not sure 62 (45%)No 14 (10%)
- seccode, 2024-03-17, about having AI chatbots ask clarifying questions instead of just answeringYes 73 (71%)Not sure 15 (15%)No 15 (15%)
- bsder, 2024-03-18, about whether AI-generated code is maintainable enough for real software developmentYes 86 (63%)Not sure 33 (24%)No 17 (12%)
- pants2, 2024-03-20, about whether any AI can pass as human on a live video callYes 24 (18%)Not sure 43 (32%)No 67 (50%)
- dingnuts, 2024-03-21, about whether Vernor Vinge's prediction of superhuman intelligence within thirty years has come trueYes 27 (22%)Not sure 29 (23%)No 69 (55%)
- YetAnotherNick, 2024-03-24, about AI assistants on phones acting as agents across appsYes 66 (52%)Not sure 33 (26%)No 28 (22%)
- Jensson, 2024-03-25, about whether code execution tools count as an LLM's "pen and paper" for reasoningYes 56 (52%)Not sure 26 (24%)No 25 (23%)
- dingnuts, 2024-03-28, about ChatGPT making up code for a small, obscure programming languageYes 79 (59%)Not sure 22 (16%)No 34 (25%)
2024 Q2
32 comments, 3,845 votes- anon373839, 2024-04-04, about whether fine-tuned AI models will threaten lawyers' workYes 43 (31%)Not sure 44 (32%)No 52 (37%)
- reacharavindh, 2024-04-07, about a local LLM app for asking questions about uploaded documentsYes 100 (80%)Not sure 17 (14%)No 8 (6%)
- breadwinner, 2024-04-08, about Musk predicting AI will be smarter than the smartest human by next yearYes 11 (9%)Not sure 27 (22%)No 82 (68%)
- anonylizard, 2024-04-13, about whether Gemini 1.5 reading Harry Potter proves anything, since the books are in training dataYes 53 (51%)Not sure 37 (36%)No 13 (13%)
- thefourthchime, 2024-04-14, about comparing GPT-4, Claude and Gemini on the same promptsYes 66 (54%)Not sure 43 (35%)No 14 (11%)
- aleph_minus_one, 2024-04-18, about a NYT claim that today's AI systems pass the Turing test easilyYes 50 (43%)Not sure 33 (28%)No 33 (28%)
- nicklecompte, 2024-04-18, about a New York Times claim that today's AI passes the Turing test with flying colorsYes 52 (41%)Not sure 44 (35%)No 30 (24%)
- devilbunny, 2024-04-20, about whether AI could replace doctors who rely on intuition, such as anesthesiologistsYes 11 (11%)Not sure 58 (56%)No 34 (33%)
- fragmede, 2024-04-21, about whether robots will be able to repair each otherYes 3 (3%)Not sure 18 (16%)No 91 (81%)
- Vegenoid, 2024-05-13, about whether an AI that fools most people in conversation counts as human-level AGIYes 29 (23%)Not sure 18 (15%)No 77 (62%)
- JimmyRuska, 2024-05-15, about how 1980s logic-based AI like Prolog compares with today's LLMsYes 37 (30%)Not sure 68 (55%)No 19 (15%)
- borgdefense, 2024-05-15, about whether needle-in-haystack tests measure real understanding of long documentsYes 67 (57%)Not sure 37 (31%)No 14 (12%)
- belter, 2024-05-15, about whether AI art is creative, given that humans create without huge datasetsYes 21 (16%)Not sure 24 (18%)No 88 (66%)
- autoexec, 2024-05-17, about Toon3D and whether AI could let fans rewatch cartoons from new perspectivesYes 56 (47%)Not sure 41 (35%)No 21 (18%)
- Sharlin, 2024-05-18, about whether LLMs trained on books are like compressed copies of copyrighted worksYes 29 (22%)Not sure 45 (34%)No 59 (44%)
- codexon, 2024-05-18, about whether LLMs that score well on reasoning benchmarks actually understand logicYes 60 (49%)Not sure 43 (35%)No 19 (16%)
- lukan, 2024-05-24, about whether an LLM answering specific questions about a subject shows understandingYes 86 (75%)Not sure 18 (16%)No 11 (10%)
- l33tman, 2024-05-25, about whether ChatGPT's hallucinations are acceptable when it is close enough to correctYes 30 (26%)Not sure 27 (24%)No 57 (50%)
- WalterBright, 2024-06-09, about a claim that LLMs will never predict chaotic systemsYes 12 (10%)Not sure 37 (32%)No 67 (58%)
- PaulHoule, 2024-06-10, about a summary of the "Situational Awareness" essay predicting rapid AI progressYes 42 (40%)Not sure 39 (37%)No 25 (24%)
- ben_w, 2024-06-10, about whether there is evidence of human-level AI coming soon, amid ChatGPT-4o hypeYes 17 (15%)Not sure 22 (20%)No 72 (65%)
- jerf, 2024-06-12, about whether GPT is useful for high-level math, given Terence Tao's experimentsYes 91 (66%)Not sure 23 (17%)No 23 (17%)
- proc0, 2024-06-13, about how to describe AI progress clearly without the vague term AGIYes 17 (15%)Not sure 12 (11%)No 81 (74%)
- Affric, 2024-06-14, about whether Aschenbrenner's prediction of AGI within a few years is naiveYes 14 (12%)Not sure 40 (36%)No 58 (52%)
- therobots927, 2024-06-14, about whether AI will upset most of the economy within 20 yearsYes 68 (57%)Not sure 24 (20%)No 28 (23%)
- lassoiat, 2024-06-18, about GPT-4o reaching 50% on ARC-AGI and whether LLMs are approaching AGIYes 73 (58%)Not sure 24 (19%)No 28 (22%)
- kaba0, 2024-06-20, about whether children are smarter than the AI meant to protect them from online groomingYes 76 (64%)Not sure 35 (29%)No 8 (7%)
- poincaredisk, 2024-06-21, about how hard writing a working exploit for an XNU kernel buffer overflow really isYes 81 (73%)Not sure 22 (20%)No 8 (7%)
- deeth_starr_v, 2024-06-21, about whether AI is already replacing junior developers, in the context of an AI bubbleYes 77 (58%)Not sure 26 (20%)No 29 (22%)
- sph, 2024-06-21, about whether professionals who refuse AI tools will fall behindYes 66 (48%)Not sure 18 (13%)No 54 (39%)
- kiernanmcgowan, 2024-06-21, about whether ChatGPT fails to understand causationYes 25 (23%)Not sure 79 (71%)No 7 (6%)
- xorcist, 2024-06-26, about whether LLMs can analyze government data by writing programs to process itYes 101 (78%)Not sure 22 (17%)No 6 (5%)
2024 Q3
30 comments, 3,596 votes- tim333, 2024-07-06, about whether AI could become superintelligent and make new scientific discoveriesYes 1 (1%)Not sure 19 (16%)No 100 (83%)
- soloist11, 2024-07-06, about whether AI can formalize mathematics like algebraic topology in LeanYes 38 (34%)Not sure 59 (53%)No 15 (13%)
- xracy, 2024-07-07, about whether LLMs that fail simple questions can help with real scienceYes 88 (65%)Not sure 15 (11%)No 33 (24%)
- Pinkthinker, 2024-07-12, about OpenAI's five-level roadmap from current AI to AGIYes 85 (74%)Not sure 9 (8%)No 21 (18%)
- rolph, 2024-07-14, about companies bolting AI onto products where a basic algorithm would doYes 5 (4%)Not sure 15 (11%)No 113 (85%)
- abernard1, 2024-07-20, about whether LLMs encode conceptual models in their intermediate-layer parameters like brains doYes 53 (45%)Not sure 35 (30%)No 29 (25%)
- disgruntledphd2, 2024-07-21, about using LLMs to convert R codebases that rely on statistical library functionsYes 53 (45%)Not sure 57 (48%)No 9 (8%)
- ccvannorman, 2024-07-21, about litmus tests for AI coding, like writing game graphics shadersYes 50 (48%)Not sure 53 (50%)No 2 (2%)
- skyde, 2024-07-24, about whether LLMs should do arithmetic themselves or use Python toolsYes 53 (41%)Not sure 45 (35%)No 30 (23%)
- VincentEvans, 2024-07-24, about whether tokenization excuses LLMs failing to count letters in "strawberry"Yes 82 (69%)Not sure 25 (21%)No 12 (10%)
- imtringued, 2024-08-01, about whether user feedback could give OpenAI an experience flywheel to improve its modelsYes 18 (17%)Not sure 16 (15%)No 71 (68%)
- alkonaut, 2024-08-03, about whether DARPA's TRACTOR can automatically translate C programs into RustYes 65 (56%)Not sure 38 (32%)No 14 (12%)
- gosub100, 2024-08-03, about a project to auto-translate C to Rust, and whether AI could write device driversYes 62 (53%)Not sure 31 (26%)No 24 (21%)
- reify, 2024-08-05, about an AI mental health companion app with real-time voice chatYes 12 (10%)Not sure 33 (28%)No 75 (62%)
- hugs, 2024-08-08, about whether multimodal LLMs make vision-first UI automation practicalYes 82 (67%)Not sure 35 (29%)No 5 (4%)
- Guvante, 2024-08-10, about whether ChatGPT's confident, unsourced answers make AI a systemic riskYes 54 (40%)Not sure 19 (14%)No 63 (46%)
- shubhamjain, 2024-08-10, about an article explaining why π² ≈ g and whether AI could find such connectionsYes 32 (29%)Not sure 47 (43%)No 30 (28%)
- austinallegro, 2024-08-14, about which AI song cover generators are free and what they can doYes 65 (46%)Not sure 57 (40%)No 19 (13%)
- DiabloD3, 2024-08-20, about whether juniors relying on LLMs learn more slowly and turn in worse codeYes 90 (70%)Not sure 13 (10%)No 26 (20%)
- cedws, 2024-08-20, about data exfiltration from Slack AI through indirect prompt injectionYes 17 (13%)Not sure 23 (18%)No 88 (69%)
- jdefr89, 2024-08-20, about whether AI is losing hype and people testing LLMs on basic arithmeticYes 55 (47%)Not sure 53 (45%)No 9 (8%)
- KennyBlanken, 2024-08-22, about using data and code instead of asking locals to choose a neighborhoodYes 21 (20%)Not sure 43 (41%)No 42 (40%)
- ericmcer, 2024-08-22, about whether ChatGPT helps with hard coding problems or just invents nonexistent APIsYes 67 (54%)Not sure 23 (19%)No 34 (27%)
- corytheboyd, 2024-08-23, about whether developers should feel threatened by AI coding toolsYes 41 (39%)Not sure 21 (20%)No 42 (40%)
- TillE, 2024-09-12, about whether the Turing test needs basic agency, after OpenAI's reasoning model releaseYes 48 (42%)Not sure 30 (26%)No 36 (32%)
- ActorNightly, 2024-09-12, about whether OpenAI o1's chain of thought is genuine reasoningYes 34 (29%)Not sure 50 (42%)No 34 (29%)
- ActorNightly, 2024-09-13, about whether OpenAI's o1 changes how much coding AI can do unassistedYes 94 (82%)Not sure 7 (6%)No 14 (12%)
- bgun, 2024-09-13, about what OpenAI's o1 models still can't do that actual AI should be able to doYes 68 (49%)Not sure 40 (29%)No 30 (22%)
- drexlspivey, 2024-09-26, about whether ChatGPT passes the Turing test or AGI goalposts have shiftedYes 57 (47%)Not sure 28 (23%)No 37 (30%)
- jltsiren, 2024-09-29, about whether AGI is inevitable and whether skeptics just keep moving the goalpostsYes 16 (15%)Not sure 21 (19%)No 73 (66%)
2024 Q4
34 comments, 4,118 votes- ccvannorman, 2024-10-01, about whether generative AI will make computer programming 10x more productiveYes 84 (77%)Not sure 14 (13%)No 11 (10%)
- hmcq6, 2024-10-02, about whether AI actually thinks or just gives the most probable answerYes 89 (62%)Not sure 25 (17%)No 30 (21%)
- ken47, 2024-10-03, about whether ChatGPT's coding tools really count as programmingYes 93 (72%)Not sure 9 (7%)No 27 (21%)
- GolDDranks, 2024-10-06, about whether LLMs passing the Turing test shows goalposts for AI keep movingYes 47 (41%)Not sure 35 (30%)No 34 (29%)
- vlovich123, 2024-10-13, about whether LLMs are capable polymaths or still make simple errorsYes 79 (67%)Not sure 23 (19%)No 16 (14%)
- shkkmo, 2024-10-20, about whether scaled-up language models can reach general intelligence when thought doesn't need languageYes 3 (3%)Not sure 25 (22%)No 87 (76%)
- johnnyanmac, 2024-10-21, about whether AI-generated code can be trusted in production without auditingYes 99 (89%)Not sure 8 (7%)No 4 (4%)
- weweweoo, 2024-10-23, about whether an LLM can count as AGI without controlling a physical bodyYes 29 (24%)Not sure 30 (25%)No 62 (51%)
- nradov, 2024-10-28, about how AGI should be defined given companies' conflicting definitionsYes 34 (28%)Not sure 27 (22%)No 59 (49%)
- Tainnor, 2024-10-30, about why AI coding help feels very useful to some developers and useless to othersYes 86 (74%)Not sure 15 (13%)No 16 (14%)
- ericmcer, 2024-10-31, about whether ChatGPT Search could replace ad-driven web search with reliable answersYes 82 (61%)Not sure 20 (15%)No 33 (24%)
- synchton, 2024-11-01, about Google's claim that AI now writes over 25% of its codeYes 69 (66%)Not sure 15 (14%)No 20 (19%)
- namuorg, 2024-11-05, about AI browser agents for computer use, from someone who built a browser-automation extensionYes 76 (61%)Not sure 24 (19%)No 24 (19%)
- jqpabc123, 2024-11-08, about Claude failing to create an unsolvable sliding puzzleYes 43 (38%)Not sure 38 (33%)No 33 (29%)
- aurareturn, 2024-11-10, about whether the FrontierMath benchmark can show if a system has reached AGIYes 89 (71%)Not sure 26 (21%)No 11 (9%)
- llm_trw, 2024-11-10, about using a simple graph problem to benchmark LLM math reasoning, re FrontierMathYes 72 (50%)Not sure 63 (43%)No 10 (7%)
- wavemode, 2024-11-14, about whether fast AI benchmark gains mean superintelligence is comingYes 18 (16%)Not sure 45 (41%)No 48 (43%)
- netdevnet, 2024-11-15, about whether LLMs can replace outsourced teams that deliver full software projectsYes 75 (56%)Not sure 22 (17%)No 36 (27%)
- jjj123, 2024-11-18, about whether an LLM could create films as novel as recent arthouse hitsYes 7 (5%)Not sure 22 (17%)No 104 (78%)
- aabhay, 2024-11-20, about physical tasks humans do that AI and robots still can'tYes 7 (6%)Not sure 23 (20%)No 85 (74%)
- boesboes, 2024-11-22, about why LLMs play chess surprisingly well or badly, and whether that shows reasoningYes 45 (43%)Not sure 41 (39%)No 19 (18%)
- devjab, 2024-11-22, about AI-assisted tooling for managing cloud platforms like AzureYes 63 (59%)Not sure 31 (29%)No 12 (11%)
- keiferski, 2024-11-26, about whether AI will replace human-made content after an AI reporter was firedYes 48 (35%)Not sure 24 (17%)No 66 (48%)
- padolsey, 2024-12-04, about a Show HN service that books and changes flights by emailYes 44 (39%)Not sure 34 (30%)No 34 (30%)
- yosito, 2024-12-05, about whether an LLM proving the Riemann Hypothesis would show it can reasonYes 75 (54%)Not sure 29 (21%)No 36 (26%)
- mrandish, 2024-12-06, about whether a model solving the ARC-AGI benchmark would say anything about AGIYes 42 (39%)Not sure 57 (52%)No 10 (9%)
- hmillison, 2024-12-16, about how software engineers can future-proof careers as LLMs generate working codeYes 66 (54%)Not sure 23 (19%)No 34 (28%)
- notthatofftopic, 2024-12-17, about whether in-person talks stay trustworthy as video generators like Veo 2 improveYes 49 (43%)Not sure 44 (38%)No 22 (19%)
- dyauspitr, 2024-12-20, about whether OpenAI o3's human-level ARC-AGI score means AGI is within reachYes 20 (17%)Not sure 39 (33%)No 59 (50%)
- kortilla, 2024-12-21, about whether AI can automate anything a computer controls, after o3's ARC-AGI scoreYes 9 (7%)Not sure 30 (24%)No 88 (69%)
- sn0wr8ven, 2024-12-21, about OpenAI o3's record ARC-AGI score and whether it reflects real reasoningYes 40 (32%)Not sure 56 (44%)No 30 (24%)
- mrbungie, 2024-12-23, about whether models learn as efficiently as humans, amid reports that GPT-5 is delayedYes 41 (34%)Not sure 71 (59%)No 9 (7%)
- rwyinuse, 2024-12-23, about whether a 20-watt human brain compares poorly to large AI modelsYes 19 (16%)Not sure 25 (21%)No 77 (64%)
- cactusplant7374, 2024-12-27, about whether current AI is a dead end or headed toward superintelligenceYes 13 (11%)Not sure 23 (20%)No 81 (69%)
2025 Q1
34 comments, 4,056 votes- mjburgess, 2025-01-10, about whether an LLM saying 'I have a pen' can mean anything without real sensesYes 48 (37%)Not sure 46 (36%)No 35 (27%)
- happyopossum, 2025-01-17, about whether browser agents like Skyvern are useful for tasks such as online shoppingYes 82 (74%)Not sure 14 (13%)No 15 (14%)
- scarface_74, 2025-01-22, about whether AI could replace doctors at diagnosis and treatmentYes 9 (7%)Not sure 31 (22%)No 98 (71%)
- hatthew, 2025-01-24, about whether the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark is a meaningful final test for AIYes 76 (55%)Not sure 27 (19%)No 36 (26%)
- JoshTko, 2025-01-26, about whether AI abilities will soon grow at an exponential rateYes 20 (17%)Not sure 38 (32%)No 59 (50%)
- fofoz, 2025-01-28, about whether AI that builds whole systems would end the software industryYes 48 (48%)Not sure 14 (14%)No 38 (38%)
- bigpingo, 2025-01-28, about whether skeptics keep dismissing each new AI achievement, like DeepSeek R1 codingYes 114 (79%)Not sure 16 (11%)No 14 (10%)
- pona-a, 2025-02-08, about whether AI solving math olympiad problems shows real intelligenceYes 39 (32%)Not sure 36 (30%)No 47 (39%)
- zyklu5, 2025-02-09, about whether current LLM architectures can produce interesting new mathematicsYes 64 (51%)Not sure 29 (23%)No 32 (26%)
- torginus, 2025-02-10, about whether LLMs have already disrupted translation and other industriesYes 38 (30%)Not sure 54 (43%)No 34 (27%)
- teeray, 2025-02-13, about the claim that AI will soon make most software engineers worthlessYes 49 (39%)Not sure 19 (15%)No 58 (46%)
- seanp2k2, 2025-02-15, about whether engineers can avoid replacement by LLMs by doing what LLMs can'tYes 44 (42%)Not sure 24 (23%)No 36 (35%)
- sandos, 2025-02-18, about whether AI coding tools help with maintaining large, existing softwareYes 20 (16%)Not sure 34 (27%)No 73 (57%)
- edanm, 2025-02-19, about whether AI-assisted programming will create more developer jobs or eliminate most of themYes 96 (84%)Not sure 5 (4%)No 13 (11%)
- JumpCrisscross, 2025-02-20, about whether programming languages will evolve to suit AI rather than humansYes 17 (14%)Not sure 25 (20%)No 81 (66%)
- rvz, 2025-02-24, about OpenAI research finding AI unable to solve most coding problemsYes 96 (82%)Not sure 14 (12%)No 7 (6%)
- camdenreslink, 2025-02-26, about whether AI will maintain codebases from English specs without humans reading the codeYes 42 (34%)Not sure 45 (36%)No 38 (30%)
- _1tem, 2025-03-01, about whether LLMs only recombine human work or can genuinely innovateYes 56 (41%)Not sure 36 (26%)No 44 (32%)
- wakawaka28, 2025-03-01, about whether vibe-coding agents will eventually write maintainable, safety-critical codeYes 21 (19%)Not sure 31 (28%)No 59 (53%)
- Herring, 2025-03-01, about whether AI can do deep reasoning and expert-level error detection in codeYes 66 (67%)Not sure 13 (13%)No 19 (19%)
- simssousa15, 2025-03-02, about whether LLMs can write documentation that explains why code was designed that wayYes 54 (51%)Not sure 26 (25%)No 26 (25%)
- no_wizard, 2025-03-08, about why AI needs MCP if it is smart enough to write API clients itselfYes 87 (76%)Not sure 13 (11%)No 14 (12%)
- daveguy, 2025-03-09, about AI tools spotting errors in research papers as part of peer reviewYes 78 (66%)Not sure 32 (27%)No 8 (7%)
- enugu, 2025-03-13, about whether LLMs passing the Turing test means we have reached real AIYes 37 (34%)Not sure 30 (28%)No 41 (38%)
- SAI_Peregrinus, 2025-03-13, about whether LLMs passing the Turing test means we have reached real AIYes 29 (27%)Not sure 40 (37%)No 40 (37%)
- jamal-kumar, 2025-03-16, about Erlang versus Elixir, and how well LLMs handle Elixir codeYes 57 (46%)Not sure 58 (47%)No 8 (7%)
- nradov, 2025-03-22, about whether the US needs new manned fighter jets like the F-47 instead of dronesYes 14 (11%)Not sure 32 (25%)No 80 (63%)
- Incipient, 2025-03-22, about whether today's reasoning models would have counted as AGI in 1990Yes 35 (27%)Not sure 33 (25%)No 62 (48%)
- __MatrixMan__, 2025-03-23, about whether LLMs scanning commits could catch supply-chain attacks like the xz backdoorYes 37 (33%)Not sure 60 (54%)No 15 (13%)
- somenameforme, 2025-03-23, about whether robots will soon do housework and let people live without workingYes 0 (0%)Not sure 5 (5%)No 103 (95%)
- szatkus, 2025-03-26, about measuring AI intelligence by real-world tasks instead of benchmarks, after Gemini 2.5's launchYes 43 (38%)Not sure 53 (46%)No 18 (16%)
- deadbabe, 2025-03-28, about why some people remain unimpressed by LLMs despite their abilitiesYes 37 (35%)Not sure 18 (17%)No 51 (48%)
- thedangler, 2025-03-31, about comparing Gemini 2.5 Pro and Claude 3.7 Sonnet on coding tasksYes 77 (65%)Not sure 29 (24%)No 13 (11%)
- wdb, 2025-03-31, about whether AI agents can reliably handle tasks like booking flightsYes 72 (55%)Not sure 35 (27%)No 24 (18%)
2025 Q2
39 comments, 4,798 votes- James_K, 2025-04-03, about whether LLMs must out-code human teams to be worth their costYes 55 (46%)Not sure 29 (24%)No 36 (30%)
- Timwi, 2025-04-05, about whether tricky text transformations should be handed to a tool instead of the LLMYes 78 (72%)Not sure 21 (19%)No 10 (9%)
- notepad0x90, 2025-04-15, about whether LLMs will end the need for software developersYes 71 (51%)Not sure 18 (13%)No 51 (36%)
- ern, 2025-04-15, about whether AI coding tools are ending the need for software developersYes 48 (39%)Not sure 17 (14%)No 57 (47%)
- SubiculumCode, 2025-04-20, about whether o3 and Gemini 2.5 count as a "jagged" form of AGIYes 2 (1%)Not sure 7 (5%)No 125 (93%)
- tossandthrow, 2025-04-21, about whether AI tools that explain codebases to humans provide real valueYes 72 (69%)Not sure 19 (18%)No 14 (13%)
- dcow, 2025-04-21, about whether stateless LLMs can count as AGIYes 8 (7%)Not sure 22 (19%)No 84 (74%)
- Jensson, 2025-04-21, about whether models that ace school exams are as generally smart as childrenYes 17 (15%)Not sure 24 (21%)No 76 (65%)
- ryandrake, 2025-04-27, about whether unpredictable LLM errors make reviewing their output a bottleneck for knowledge workYes 26 (23%)Not sure 33 (29%)No 53 (47%)
- duttish, 2025-04-30, about OpenAI rolling back an overly sycophantic GPT-4o updateYes 64 (57%)Not sure 18 (16%)No 31 (27%)
- simulator5g, 2025-04-30, about whether LLMs critiquing their own output can catch reasoning mistakes in proofsYes 88 (76%)Not sure 17 (15%)No 11 (9%)
- AIPedant, 2025-05-02, about what it would take to convince a skeptic that machines are intelligentYes 51 (32%)Not sure 59 (37%)No 51 (32%)
- scotty79, 2025-05-05, about the hope that AI and robotics progress won't stall for decadesYes 35 (28%)Not sure 42 (34%)No 46 (37%)
- dns_snek, 2025-05-06, about whether passing the bar exam and olympiad math means AGI is already hereYes 25 (22%)Not sure 18 (16%)No 71 (62%)
- 0x000xca0xfe, 2025-05-06, about whether AI-assisted "vibe coding" is the next industrial revolutionYes 42 (30%)Not sure 35 (25%)No 63 (45%)
- mliker, 2025-05-06, about Gemini 2.5 Pro's video-to-learning-app feature tried on Stanford lecturesYes 44 (37%)Not sure 46 (39%)No 29 (24%)
- markgall, 2025-05-08, about whether transformers are already a source of new mathematical theoremsYes 76 (62%)Not sure 30 (25%)No 16 (13%)
- tantalor, 2025-05-12, about whether an AI turning 100 papers into a new one is plagiarismYes 61 (46%)Not sure 30 (23%)No 41 (31%)
- seesthruya, 2025-05-14, about whether AI will replace radiologists, asked of a practicing radiologistYes 10 (8%)Not sure 35 (29%)No 76 (63%)
- jdefr89, 2025-05-14, about an AI agent startup that automatically finds bugs in pull requestsYes 98 (94%)Not sure 4 (4%)No 2 (2%)
- sebstefan, 2025-05-15, about whether AlphaEvolve's algorithm discoveries prove AI can do useful researchYes 85 (73%)Not sure 15 (13%)No 17 (15%)
- ModernMech, 2025-05-22, about whether Claude 4 in Copilot can automate package upgrades and maintenance of old projectsYes 93 (82%)Not sure 17 (15%)No 4 (4%)
- Draiken, 2025-05-22, about Copilot agent PRs on Microsoft's repos and whether AI can fix real GitHub issuesYes 99 (84%)Not sure 8 (7%)No 11 (9%)
- jqpabc123, 2025-05-30, about Anthropic's CEO predicting that AI will cause mass unemployment within five yearsYes 33 (28%)Not sure 17 (14%)No 68 (58%)
- quickthrowman, 2025-05-30, about whether self-driving cars will soon handle driving in snowYes 7 (5%)Not sure 69 (48%)No 69 (48%)
- andrepd, 2025-06-02, about whether AI coding agents can build major features without getting stuckYes 42 (34%)Not sure 77 (62%)No 5 (4%)
- prmph, 2025-06-03, about whether LLMs are just the next abstraction layer, like compilers over assemblyYes 10 (9%)Not sure 10 (9%)No 96 (83%)
- ReptileMan, 2025-06-04, about how AI is changing software development and which jobs will surviveYes 62 (50%)Not sure 34 (27%)No 29 (23%)
- energywut, 2025-06-04, about whether camera-based self-driving like Tesla FSD can be feasible this yearYes 43 (33%)Not sure 35 (27%)No 53 (40%)
- raducu, 2025-06-05, about whether LLMs lack the continuity and memory needed for AGIYes 29 (26%)Not sure 27 (24%)No 57 (50%)
- bostik, 2025-06-05, about whether current AI systems can reason abstractly and actually learnYes 48 (39%)Not sure 51 (41%)No 24 (20%)
- solarwindy, 2025-06-07, about whether LLMs can really learn and improve like human developersYes 10 (8%)Not sure 22 (18%)No 90 (74%)
- delusional, 2025-06-09, about whether teachers failing to spot ChatGPT essays means it passed the Turing testYes 44 (33%)Not sure 36 (27%)No 53 (40%)
- waldrews, 2025-06-11, about Google's cheap AI search summaries versus its stronger Gemini modelsYes 33 (29%)Not sure 35 (31%)No 46 (40%)
- janalsncm, 2025-06-12, about an o3 Pro review claiming models are now too good for simple testsYes 72 (62%)Not sure 29 (25%)No 16 (14%)
- giantg2, 2025-06-17, about a developer saying generative AI coding tools and agents don't work for themYes 80 (59%)Not sure 24 (18%)No 31 (23%)
- jfengel, 2025-06-17, about whether any task really needs a humanoid robot rather than a specialized oneYes 2 (2%)Not sure 10 (8%)No 119 (91%)
- reactordev, 2025-06-20, about using AI agents to port Linux drivers to the Rust-based Asterinas kernelYes 60 (48%)Not sure 44 (35%)No 21 (17%)
- nextlevelwizard, 2025-06-24, about whether today's AI coding tools work like junior or mid-level developersYes 111 (80%)Not sure 12 (9%)No 16 (12%)
2025 Q3
47 comments, 5,672 votes- epolanski, 2025-07-01, about companies pushing AI use, and having AI act on meeting summariesYes 88 (68%)Not sure 25 (19%)No 16 (12%)
- imiric, 2025-07-01, about whether getting good LLM output really requires special context-engineering skillsYes 28 (27%)Not sure 28 (27%)No 49 (47%)
- ipnon, 2025-07-05, about a better AGI benchmark: telling an AI to go make moneyYes 8 (6%)Not sure 29 (22%)No 97 (72%)
- oc1, 2025-07-06, about whether Claude Code usage limits are the real bottleneck for professional developersYes 30 (27%)Not sure 24 (21%)No 58 (52%)
- gonzobonzo, 2025-07-07, about whether a high score on the ARC benchmark would mean AI has reached AGIYes 8 (7%)Not sure 15 (14%)No 88 (79%)
- godshatter, 2025-07-07, about what real-world test would show AGI, instead of benchmarks like ARCYes 34 (29%)Not sure 29 (24%)No 56 (47%)
- tmvphil, 2025-07-08, about whether current AIs already count as general intelligence under ARC-AGI-2Yes 33 (26%)Not sure 30 (24%)No 64 (50%)
- amelius, 2025-07-12, about how well AI tools do at designing printed circuit boardsYes 60 (47%)Not sure 44 (35%)No 23 (18%)
- pama, 2025-07-13, about a claimed proof that AGI is mathematically impossible, using Kolmogorov complexityYes 12 (10%)Not sure 17 (14%)No 89 (75%)
- hyperbovine, 2025-07-15, about whether LLMs that largely solved NLP count as trivial or as real AIYes 71 (59%)Not sure 29 (24%)No 20 (17%)
- n4r9, 2025-07-16, about whether LLMs can recognize or produce genuinely novel ideasYes 17 (15%)Not sure 39 (35%)No 57 (50%)
- nlawalker, 2025-07-17, about what should count as "agentic" AI, after the ChatGPT agent launchYes 44 (44%)Not sure 18 (18%)No 37 (37%)
- bloppe, 2025-07-19, about a blog post where an LLM reimplemented ls using only strace outputYes 68 (55%)Not sure 53 (43%)No 3 (2%)
- bwfan123, 2025-07-19, about whether an AI's reported IMO gold medal is a real achievementYes 47 (37%)Not sure 63 (49%)No 18 (14%)
- pphysch, 2025-07-19, about LLMs failing to reach bronze on the 2025 International Math OlympiadYes 90 (70%)Not sure 34 (27%)No 4 (3%)
- brandonmenc, 2025-07-20, about what would convince skeptics to take AI seriously after the IMO gold resultYes 8 (6%)Not sure 44 (31%)No 91 (64%)
- xigoi, 2025-07-20, about what would convince skeptics to take AI seriously after OpenAI's IMO goldYes 49 (45%)Not sure 45 (41%)No 16 (15%)
- an0malous, 2025-07-20, about how humans self-correct to build reliable systems, and whether AI agents canYes 8 (7%)Not sure 29 (27%)No 72 (66%)
- klabb3, 2025-07-23, about whether AI agents wrongly deleting files from bad guesses is a fundamental flawYes 52 (40%)Not sure 36 (27%)No 43 (33%)
- general1726, 2025-08-04, about whether LLMs can produce wholly novel research without external sourcesYes 14 (12%)Not sure 48 (40%)No 57 (48%)
- sleepybrett, 2025-08-05, about what it would take for a skeptic to start relying on AI answersYes 55 (41%)Not sure 21 (16%)No 58 (43%)
- keyle, 2025-08-06, about latency of a tiny open-source, CPU-only text-to-speech modelYes 48 (41%)Not sure 29 (25%)No 41 (35%)
- kazinator, 2025-08-06, about whether Gemini Flash or Pro answers obscure questions correctly or invents plausible nonsenseYes 31 (24%)Not sure 30 (23%)No 69 (53%)
- knodi123, 2025-08-07, about whether AGI matters much since millions of humans already have general intelligenceYes 19 (15%)Not sure 29 (22%)No 83 (63%)
- Telemakhos, 2025-08-07, about first impressions of OpenAI's GPT-5 releaseYes 25 (19%)Not sure 88 (67%)No 18 (14%)
- obloid, 2025-08-08, about GPT-5's release and whether image models can imagine scenes outside their training dataYes 74 (66%)Not sure 32 (29%)No 6 (5%)
- lutusp, 2025-08-08, about how well GPT-5 avoids hallucinating facts about little-known peopleYes 42 (37%)Not sure 21 (18%)No 52 (45%)
- maoberlehner, 2025-08-08, about whether LLM mistakes reveal limits of their intelligence, like a child learning to spellYes 39 (30%)Not sure 30 (23%)No 59 (46%)
- therein, 2025-08-08, about whether Google's Genie or GPT-5 are anywhere close to AGIYes 55 (57%)Not sure 35 (36%)No 7 (7%)
- ktallett, 2025-08-11, about whether AI chatbots trained on Wikipedia have made Wikipedia less relevantYes 33 (24%)Not sure 35 (25%)No 72 (51%)
- nojvek, 2025-08-11, about how software engineers feel about AI doing a large share of their workYes 61 (58%)Not sure 18 (17%)No 26 (25%)
- sefrost, 2025-08-17, about whether LLMs can be trusted to give sources that support their claimsYes 64 (52%)Not sure 17 (14%)No 42 (34%)
- vunderba, 2025-08-18, about a study where readers compared AI-written stories with professional authors' storiesYes 47 (37%)Not sure 52 (41%)No 27 (21%)
- zerr, 2025-08-24, about whether LLMs speed up game development when coding was never the bottleneckYes 63 (57%)Not sure 33 (30%)No 14 (13%)
- sensanaty, 2025-08-28, about whether critics keep shifting goalposts on whether self-driving cars are hereYes 10 (8%)Not sure 69 (53%)No 51 (39%)
- CamperBob2, 2025-08-31, about how to define AGI, given there is no consensus definitionYes 17 (13%)Not sure 61 (46%)No 54 (41%)
- ewoodrich, 2025-09-04, about whether today's LLMs meet Moravec's 1997 standard for machines having mindsYes 38 (33%)Not sure 23 (20%)No 53 (46%)
- otabdeveloper4, 2025-09-15, about whether LLMs can write eBPF programs that pass the kernel verifierYes 49 (39%)Not sure 74 (58%)No 4 (3%)
- dmitrygr, 2025-09-16, about whether AI could combine thousands of photo frames into one better imageYes 28 (26%)Not sure 46 (43%)No 32 (30%)
- zarzavat, 2025-09-21, about how often Claude needs a human to step in on coding tasksYes 52 (46%)Not sure 16 (14%)No 46 (40%)
- cowlby, 2025-09-21, about a new generative model for structured CAD and LLMs' 3D modeling abilityYes 67 (51%)Not sure 49 (37%)No 16 (12%)
- raspasov, 2025-09-25, about DeepMind and OpenAI models winning gold at the ICPC programming contestYes 0 (0%)Not sure 18 (16%)No 94 (84%)
- MollyRealized, 2025-09-26, about an app that logs your day, and selling it to lawyers who bill hourlyYes 68 (60%)Not sure 35 (31%)No 10 (9%)
- nvegater, 2025-09-27, about whether AI models could learn from experience by continuously changing their weightsYes 3 (2%)Not sure 34 (28%)No 83 (69%)
- dns_snek, 2025-09-28, about whether coding with LLMs is like moving to higher-level languages such as PythonYes 54 (53%)Not sure 15 (15%)No 33 (32%)
- jongjong, 2025-09-29, about what artificial general intelligence means and when people will accept it existsYes 18 (13%)Not sure 17 (12%)No 104 (75%)
- cobbal, 2025-09-30, about whether LLMs can act like compilers from English to verifiable codeYes 52 (42%)Not sure 30 (24%)No 43 (34%)
2025 Q4
27 comments, 3,199 votes- sayamqazi, 2025-10-02, about whether humanoid robots can learn human-level hand dexterityYes 8 (6%)Not sure 52 (41%)No 68 (53%)
- CuriouslyC, 2025-10-02, about whether the AI boom is a bubble about to pop like earlier onesYes 17 (13%)Not sure 22 (17%)No 89 (70%)
- Leynos, 2025-10-04, about whether AGI is already here or still far off, amid AI investment bubble talkYes 37 (34%)Not sure 25 (23%)No 46 (43%)
- deadbabe, 2025-10-14, about whether huge AI infrastructure spending will pay off before hardware becomes obsoleteYes 39 (30%)Not sure 21 (16%)No 68 (53%)
- syntaxing, 2025-10-20, about Claude Code getting DeepSeek-OCR running on an Nvidia SparkYes 56 (54%)Not sure 39 (38%)No 9 (9%)
- casey2, 2025-10-21, about neural audio codecs for feeding audio directly into LLMsYes 36 (28%)Not sure 50 (38%)No 44 (34%)
- lazystar, 2025-10-23, about the AWS DynamoDB us-east-1 outage and unforeseen failure modes in complex systemsYes 73 (63%)Not sure 26 (23%)No 16 (14%)
- tsimionescu, 2025-10-26, about whether chatbots can pass a Turing test with judges actively hunting for the AIYes 48 (44%)Not sure 26 (24%)No 34 (31%)
- xyzzy123, 2025-10-27, about whether AGI needs to resemble a human mind at allYes 15 (13%)Not sure 18 (15%)No 85 (72%)
- michaelmarkell, 2025-10-27, about whether Claude for Excel can be trusted with messy real-world spreadsheetsYes 48 (41%)Not sure 53 (45%)No 16 (14%)
- bloppe, 2025-10-28, about whether transformer LLMs can use much longer contexts without context rotYes 48 (44%)Not sure 39 (36%)No 21 (19%)
- tsimionescu, 2025-10-28, about whether one AI model could be trained both to write plays and drive carsYes 34 (26%)Not sure 31 (23%)No 68 (51%)
- sieep, 2025-10-29, about Anthropic's experiment letting Claude run an office vending shopYes 59 (41%)Not sure 28 (20%)No 56 (39%)
- NateEag, 2025-11-01, about whether Anthropic's concept-injection experiments show LLMs can introspect on their internal statesYes 12 (11%)Not sure 66 (60%)No 32 (29%)
- rewilder12, 2025-11-03, about Google pulling an AI model that fabricated an assault allegation about a senatorYes 9 (8%)Not sure 14 (12%)No 96 (81%)
- Razengan, 2025-11-04, about what AI's killer app will be, the way email was for the internetYes 65 (53%)Not sure 29 (24%)No 28 (23%)
- dripdry45, 2025-11-14, about Claude calling something "weird" in a CSS chat without explaining whyYes 37 (29%)Not sure 49 (39%)No 40 (32%)
- giardini, 2025-11-26, about whether LLMs could learn from no more text than a college graduate readsYes 49 (43%)Not sure 28 (25%)No 36 (32%)
- Eisenstein, 2025-12-01, about whether thinking models really think, and what test should replace that debateYes 12 (9%)Not sure 26 (20%)No 90 (70%)
- jfengel, 2025-12-01, about an AI proving Erdős Problem #124 and whether hard math is the right testYes 43 (35%)Not sure 28 (23%)No 53 (43%)
- jacobsenscott, 2025-12-09, about whether AI benchmarks show real progress or are marketingYes 68 (58%)Not sure 18 (15%)No 31 (26%)
- bob1029, 2025-12-09, about genetic algorithms versus backpropagation, prompted by the universal weight subspace hypothesisYes 0 (0%)Not sure 45 (45%)No 56 (55%)
- bad_username, 2025-12-09, about an essay arguing AI progress is steady but human equivalence arrives suddenlyYes 22 (19%)Not sure 26 (23%)No 65 (58%)
- falcor84, 2025-12-15, about whether AI can cheaply build full software products like CRM or ERP systemsYes 25 (24%)Not sure 32 (31%)No 46 (45%)
- rssoconnor, 2025-12-19, about whether engineers who dismiss AI coding tools are wrongYes 26 (18%)Not sure 102 (72%)No 14 (10%)
- 29ebJCyy, 2025-12-19, about whether relying on AI-generated code makes you a worse programmerYes 26 (24%)Not sure 19 (17%)No 64 (59%)
- krackers, 2025-12-21, about whether current models learn ARC-AGI-3 game rules like humans doYes 23 (22%)Not sure 61 (59%)No 20 (19%)
2026 Q1
52 comments, 6,202 votes- websiteapi, 2026-01-03, about a Google engineer saying Claude Code built in an hour what her team spent a year onYes 6 (4%)Not sure 39 (28%)No 92 (67%)
- pingananth, 2026-01-05, about whether AI will replace middle managers, under a simulator of moving from engineer to managerYes 15 (12%)Not sure 33 (26%)No 77 (62%)
- dns_snek, 2026-01-12, about why HN has so few examples of high-quality vibe-coded projectsYes 54 (48%)Not sure 36 (32%)No 22 (20%)
- scottlamb, 2026-01-12, about whether an LLM trained only on pre-1900 texts could rediscover physics like relativityYes 5 (4%)Not sure 47 (38%)No 72 (58%)
- viccis, 2026-01-12, about whether an LLM trained only on 19th-century texts could rediscover modern physicsYes 8 (6%)Not sure 50 (39%)No 70 (55%)
- techno_tsar, 2026-01-12, about whether an LLM trained only on 1800–1875 data could rediscover Einstein's physicsYes 1 (1%)Not sure 23 (21%)No 85 (78%)
- andy12_, 2026-01-13, about whether an AI able to do what Einstein did would be AGIYes 9 (8%)Not sure 23 (21%)No 80 (71%)
- SecretDreams, 2026-01-15, about what AI would need to replace human technical writersYes 60 (42%)Not sure 29 (20%)No 53 (37%)
- kilroy123, 2026-01-15, about an experiment scaling long-running autonomous AI coding agentsYes 23 (19%)Not sure 42 (34%)No 59 (48%)
- Insanity, 2026-01-21, about whether developers are really falling behind by not adopting AI coding agentsYes 72 (65%)Not sure 32 (29%)No 6 (5%)
- polyglotfacto, 2026-01-21, about an autonomous AI coding run that built a rough browser engineYes 79 (62%)Not sure 22 (17%)No 26 (20%)
- ACS_Solver, 2026-01-22, about whether LLMs can show real innovation by cracking an unsolved cipherYes 6 (5%)Not sure 75 (67%)No 31 (28%)
- cheema33, 2026-01-26, about whether using an LLM to fly a drone makes sense when autopilots existYes 42 (39%)Not sure 37 (34%)No 30 (28%)
- cv5005, 2026-02-02, about Google's Game Arena for benchmarking AI models by playing gamesYes 31 (28%)Not sure 36 (32%)No 44 (40%)
- phatfish, 2026-02-02, about whether AI tools can replace software work when business rationale lives only in people's headsYes 38 (28%)Not sure 44 (33%)No 52 (39%)
- pointlessone, 2026-02-08, about whether AI threatens programmers who fix obscure bugs nobody else canYes 56 (51%)Not sure 24 (22%)No 30 (27%)
- matheus-rr, 2026-02-08, about whether prompts to LLMs are becoming a new high-level programming languageYes 39 (31%)Not sure 16 (13%)No 72 (57%)
- listless, 2026-02-09, about a post claiming the OpenClaw AI agent is changing its author's lifeYes 95 (71%)Not sure 18 (14%)No 20 (15%)
- ta20240528, 2026-02-09, about whether AI coding tools make the easy parts of programming easier and hard parts harderYes 11 (11%)Not sure 22 (21%)No 70 (68%)
- SamPatt, 2026-02-13, about using Gemini to label digitized family home videos instead of doing it by handYes 23 (23%)Not sure 42 (41%)No 37 (36%)
- gordonhart, 2026-02-13, about whether software engineers should worry about losing their jobs to AIYes 46 (33%)Not sure 45 (32%)No 50 (35%)
- zozbot234, 2026-02-14, about whether frontier models are PhD-level in every subject, in a debate on AI job lossYes 38 (30%)Not sure 38 (30%)No 50 (40%)
- AngryData, 2026-02-16, about whether embodiment and robotics matter for judging if AGI is imminentYes 24 (17%)Not sure 31 (22%)No 84 (60%)
- roxolotl, 2026-02-16, about AI answering whether to walk or drive to a car wash 50 meters awayYes 81 (55%)Not sure 39 (27%)No 26 (18%)
- hulitu, 2026-02-17, about whether AI amplifies engineering expertise or just creates extra work to fixYes 64 (58%)Not sure 22 (20%)No 25 (23%)
- pickleRick243, 2026-02-18, about whether AI will replace computer workers, and how true AGI would reshape the economyYes 37 (32%)Not sure 21 (18%)No 58 (50%)
- Windchaser, 2026-02-19, about whether LLMs just need to connect to specialized tools that already beat humansYes 34 (32%)Not sure 40 (37%)No 33 (31%)
- viccis, 2026-02-21, about whether AI security tools can match high-quality human vulnerability researchersYes 34 (34%)Not sure 43 (43%)No 24 (24%)
- kittikitti, 2026-02-24, about whether AI has made writing code cheapYes 79 (66%)Not sure 30 (25%)No 11 (9%)
- veunes, 2026-02-24, about an AI porting a Linux Wi-Fi driver to FreeBSD for an old MacBookYes 43 (38%)Not sure 48 (42%)No 22 (19%)
- majorchord, 2026-02-25, about a paper showing LLMs can deanonymize people online from information they postedYes 64 (49%)Not sure 44 (34%)No 23 (18%)
- ilaksh, 2026-02-28, about whether Claude Code building a Z80 emulator proves real capability or just copyingYes 15 (13%)Not sure 57 (48%)No 46 (39%)
- shiandow, 2026-02-28, about whether LLMs can be intelligent when they don't learn while in useYes 21 (19%)Not sure 30 (28%)No 58 (53%)
- 0xbadcafebee, 2026-03-01, about whether tool-calling LLMs that fetch their own context amount to AGIYes 8 (8%)Not sure 22 (21%)No 73 (71%)
- Copyrightest, 2026-03-03, about why there are no good AI-generated games, such as AI text adventuresYes 24 (20%)Not sure 56 (46%)No 41 (34%)
- usefulcat, 2026-03-04, about whether writing tests first is enough to verify AI-written codeYes 79 (65%)Not sure 29 (24%)No 14 (11%)
- llbbdd, 2026-03-04, about whether AI companies exaggerate their models' abilities, given Claude ships as an Electron appYes 11 (10%)Not sure 25 (23%)No 73 (67%)
- ndriscoll, 2026-03-05, about whether LLMs memorize copyrighted books, in a story on relicensing via AI rewritesYes 22 (16%)Not sure 64 (47%)No 50 (37%)
- sebastos, 2026-03-08, about whether passing the Turing test and winning Math Olympiad gold means AGIYes 20 (17%)Not sure 23 (19%)No 75 (64%)
- tovej, 2026-03-09, about Grammarly's AI 'expert' reviews mimicking famous writers, and whether LLMs can apply their techniquesYes 21 (18%)Not sure 53 (46%)No 41 (36%)
- bigstrat2003, 2026-03-10, about whether AI now generates full-stack apps that run first try, re Debian AI policyYes 106 (83%)Not sure 6 (5%)No 15 (12%)
- analog31, 2026-03-15, about the claim that AI has mostly solved software engineeringYes 19 (17%)Not sure 30 (28%)No 60 (55%)
- flash_us0101, 2026-03-16, about whether AI coding agents can debug running systemsYes 55 (50%)Not sure 34 (31%)No 22 (20%)
- twelvevaginas, 2026-03-16, about a Show HN claiming Claude Code skills build complete Godot gamesYes 106 (79%)Not sure 18 (13%)No 11 (8%)
- zug_zug, 2026-03-18, about a proposed cognitive framework for measuring progress toward AGIYes 17 (15%)Not sure 45 (38%)No 55 (47%)
- array_key_first, 2026-03-20, about whether Opus 4.6 is smarter than the average personYes 8 (7%)Not sure 27 (25%)No 75 (68%)
- quantified, 2026-03-20, about an essay's claim that AI already exceeds humans in most cognitive domainsYes 33 (25%)Not sure 27 (20%)No 72 (55%)
- blackcatsec, 2026-03-24, about GPT-5.4 Pro solving an open math problem, and whether AI just remixes ideasYes 36 (29%)Not sure 37 (30%)No 52 (42%)
- storus, 2026-03-24, about GPT-5.4 Pro solving an open math problem, and whether LLMs produce truly novel ideasYes 4 (4%)Not sure 37 (35%)No 65 (61%)
- root_axis, 2026-03-24, about whether today's LLMs already look like AGI, on a story about Arm's "AGI CPU"Yes 50 (46%)Not sure 35 (32%)No 23 (21%)
- cubefox, 2026-03-26, about whether ARC-AGI-3 unfairly demands vision from text-only modelsYes 17 (15%)Not sure 59 (50%)No 41 (35%)
- utopcell, 2026-03-29, about AI and human work on Knuth's problem, and whether AI can solve Millennium Prize ProblemsYes 1 (1%)Not sure 16 (14%)No 95 (85%)
2026 Q2
44 comments, 5,423 votes- ndsipa_pomu, 2026-04-04, about whether AI should help design broad-spectrum "everything vaccines"Yes 73 (61%)Not sure 19 (16%)No 28 (23%)
- andai, 2026-04-09, about how reliably LLMs stick to instructions such as style promptsYes 51 (39%)Not sure 37 (28%)No 42 (32%)
- boothby, 2026-04-13, about whether an AGI arms race makes nuclear war or violence more likelyYes 4 (3%)Not sure 12 (9%)No 120 (88%)
- themafia, 2026-04-14, about claims that an AI revolution in mathematics has arrivedYes 89 (65%)Not sure 22 (16%)No 25 (18%)
- sandworm101, 2026-04-14, about whether AI could replace human airline pilots, after a test of Claude flying a planeYes 6 (6%)Not sure 32 (31%)No 66 (63%)
- zozbot234, 2026-04-16, about whether coding models are really PhD-expert level when they make boneheaded mistakesYes 40 (32%)Not sure 40 (32%)No 46 (37%)
- Animats, 2026-04-16, about a homemade AI-driven probe arm for hacking hardwareYes 19 (19%)Not sure 69 (70%)No 10 (10%)
- therobots927, 2026-04-18, about whether AI could deliver personalized medical treatment, from prescriptions to surgeryYes 5 (4%)Not sure 23 (19%)No 94 (77%)
- zozbot234, 2026-04-20, about whether top AI models are worth paying for over cheaper ones like QwenYes 26 (19%)Not sure 22 (16%)No 87 (64%)
- IshKebab, 2026-04-25, about whether the latest AI models still show obvious flaws like miscounting lettersYes 46 (39%)Not sure 47 (39%)No 26 (22%)
- raincole, 2026-04-26, about whether voice requests will soon build complete personal apps like a fridge-nutrition trackerYes 57 (45%)Not sure 45 (35%)No 26 (20%)
- qsera, 2026-04-27, about whether LLMs that solve hard math but can't count are truly intelligentYes 60 (51%)Not sure 24 (21%)No 33 (28%)
- LeCompteSftware, 2026-04-30, about whether AI-built projects like fnCAD show AI can replace open-source softwareYes 16 (15%)Not sure 37 (36%)No 51 (49%)
- giancarlostoro, 2026-05-01, about whether locally run models can handle long contexts without loopingYes 51 (43%)Not sure 50 (42%)No 17 (14%)
- teiferer, 2026-05-04, about image models using "underdrawings" to render text and numbers accurately, and whether AGI is closeYes 77 (67%)Not sure 17 (15%)No 21 (18%)
- octoberfranklin, 2026-05-06, about AI agents for financial services and insurance, and AI filing taxesYes 21 (15%)Not sure 35 (26%)No 80 (59%)
- grey-area, 2026-05-07, about whether AI agents will run businesses without humans, compared with crypto hypeYes 13 (10%)Not sure 19 (15%)No 99 (76%)
- dehrmann, 2026-05-09, about whether LLM progress will plateau, after ChatGPT 5.5 Pro's math resultYes 7 (7%)Not sure 42 (40%)No 55 (53%)
- throawayonthe, 2026-05-11, about whether local AI models can become the norm on consumer hardwareYes 13 (11%)Not sure 36 (31%)No 68 (58%)
- ArjunPatel64, 2026-05-11, about whether o1 out-diagnosing triage doctors from text means AI can replace doctorsYes 7 (5%)Not sure 48 (36%)No 78 (59%)
- mpalmer, 2026-05-13, about an AI sci-fi writing project and whether its stories count as novelsYes 14 (11%)Not sure 32 (24%)No 87 (65%)
- stevenhuang, 2026-05-14, about whether AI could make surprising discoveries like a new seawater-resistant stainless steelYes 49 (42%)Not sure 30 (26%)No 37 (32%)
- sinaatalay, 2026-05-18, about why nobody has vibe-coded large applications like Photoshop yetYes 40 (33%)Not sure 17 (14%)No 66 (54%)
- d1l, 2026-05-18, about why there are no vibecoded Photoshop-scale apps despite AI coding toolsYes 93 (73%)Not sure 16 (12%)No 19 (15%)
- MattCruikshank, 2026-05-19, about a Show HN Gaussian splat 3D capture of a strawberryYes 28 (22%)Not sure 61 (47%)No 41 (32%)
- jaccola, 2026-05-25, about whether any LLM-written novel is worth recommendingYes 26 (19%)Not sure 29 (21%)No 84 (60%)
- giancarlostoro, 2026-05-28, about how to define AGI when forecasting the automation of all cognitive laborYes 36 (27%)Not sure 32 (24%)No 63 (48%)
- ryandrake, 2026-05-28, about whether AI-written code deserves less scrutiny than AI-written proseYes 39 (32%)Not sure 26 (21%)No 56 (46%)
- 01100011, 2026-05-29, about whether AI and robots will replace all jobs and kill the economyYes 2 (2%)Not sure 12 (10%)No 107 (88%)
- ACCount37, 2026-05-29, about whether hardware or AI is what keeps robots from cleaning homesYes 8 (7%)Not sure 51 (42%)No 63 (52%)
- wslh, 2026-06-03, about whether AI will make human mathematicians obsolete, as happened in chessYes 11 (8%)Not sure 26 (20%)No 94 (72%)
- vmg12, 2026-06-03, about Ted Chiang's argument that artificial intelligence is not consciousYes 29 (24%)Not sure 34 (28%)No 58 (48%)
- rad_val, 2026-06-03, about mathematicians warning about AI rapidly gaining ground in proofs and researchYes 2 (1%)Not sure 15 (11%)No 123 (88%)
- daft_pink, 2026-06-09, about whether AI shopping agents are useful for tasks like buying groceriesYes 28 (21%)Not sure 46 (35%)No 59 (44%)
- the_black_hand, 2026-06-13, about whether the US government's suspension of access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 is justifiedYes 11 (8%)Not sure 31 (23%)No 91 (68%)
- tuetuopay, 2026-06-13, about which AI and robotics tasks are truly hard, beyond text processingYes 24 (20%)Not sure 44 (37%)No 50 (42%)
- pshirshov, 2026-06-13, about whether a commenter's n=1 coding benchmark shows Claude Fable is overhypedYes 24 (22%)Not sure 51 (47%)No 34 (31%)
- yoz-y, 2026-06-15, about why there are no popular vibe-coded games yetYes 13 (9%)Not sure 14 (10%)No 110 (80%)
- codinhood, 2026-06-15, about whether local models can replace Claude or GPT for daily codingYes 32 (29%)Not sure 31 (28%)No 49 (44%)
- giancarlostoro, 2026-06-16, about whether LLM safety filters can ever reliably block harmful outputsYes 17 (14%)Not sure 30 (24%)No 78 (62%)
- JumpinJack_Cash, 2026-06-18, about whether learning a foreign language beats learning to code in the AI eraYes 35 (33%)Not sure 32 (30%)No 38 (36%)
- qsera, 2026-06-19, about whether AI agents with physical-world feedback could invent things like humans doYes 13 (11%)Not sure 57 (47%)No 51 (42%)
- cedws, 2026-06-19, about whether future malware could run powerful LLMs locally on ordinary devicesYes 17 (14%)Not sure 22 (18%)No 81 (68%)
- paulpauper, 2026-06-27, about how AI's growing role in mathematics is forcing big questionsYes 52 (42%)Not sure 37 (30%)No 36 (29%)
2026 Q3
56 comments, 6,866 votes- PaiDxng, 2026-07-03, about AI coding assistants duplicating code and rarely changing or deleting existing codeYes 54 (45%)Not sure 24 (20%)No 41 (34%)
- Diogenesian, 2026-07-06, about whether transformer neural networks are dumber than cockroachesYes 21 (18%)Not sure 53 (46%)No 41 (36%)
- tharkun__, 2026-07-15, about whether a small 27B model that runs on a phone is good at coding and tool callingYes 17 (17%)Not sure 51 (50%)No 33 (33%)
- meowface, 2026-07-20, about whether an AI counterexample to the Jacobian Conjecture means math research went wrongYes 4 (3%)Not sure 16 (14%)No 95 (83%)
- wslh, 2026-07-28, about Claude being used to find weaknesses in cryptographic algorithmsYes 17 (13%)Not sure 82 (64%)No 30 (23%)
- rdedev, 2026-07-30, about whether AI can make biology discoveries without doing lab experimentsYes 3 (2%)Not sure 31 (25%)No 89 (72%)
- bishengke, 2026-07-31, about an experiment where GPT 5.6 Sol ran a real business and lost moneyYes 83 (64%)Not sure 28 (22%)No 18 (14%)
- robwwilliams, 2026-08-05, about whether AI-written prose will soon be indistinguishable from human writingYes 23 (21%)Not sure 61 (56%)No 25 (23%)
- MissTake, 2026-08-09, about an AI voice content tool and whether AI speech handles prosodyYes 23 (19%)Not sure 51 (41%)No 49 (40%)
- ethin, 2026-08-09, about whether every software engineer should be amazed by AI coding in 2026Yes 26 (20%)Not sure 37 (28%)No 67 (52%)
- iepathos, 2026-08-10, about whether LLM triage could fix the flood of AI-generated bug reports on HackerOneYes 90 (71%)Not sure 27 (21%)No 10 (8%)
- AbbeFaria, 2026-08-11, about why software engineers' jobs are more exposed to AI than doctors' or lawyers'Yes 7 (5%)Not sure 30 (21%)No 103 (74%)
- FrustratedMonky, 2026-08-11, about which programming languages coding agents perform best inYes 52 (43%)Not sure 40 (33%)No 28 (23%)
- mrsilencedogood, 2026-08-11, about whether Go is an ideal language for AI-assisted coding, given its tricky concurrencyYes 49 (39%)Not sure 53 (42%)No 24 (19%)
- 3dsnano, 2026-08-17, about whether Claude can write coherent code on its own, as Anthropic's CEO claimedYes 57 (42%)Not sure 30 (22%)No 48 (36%)
- wise_blood, 2026-08-22, about whether solving the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark would mean AGI has been achievedYes 4 (4%)Not sure 20 (18%)No 87 (78%)
- jorvi, 2026-08-24, about whether ChatGPT is already clever enough to be a useful cooking assistantYes 47 (37%)Not sure 47 (37%)No 33 (26%)
- shric, 2026-08-25, about whether and when AI has actually beaten the Turing testYes 14 (14%)Not sure 62 (63%)No 22 (22%)
- csa, 2026-08-28, about the backlash against Silicon Valley and whether AI could take over all remote jobsYes 8 (5%)Not sure 13 (9%)No 127 (86%)
- doc_ick, 2026-09-02, about whether AI could rewrite something as complex as Microsoft WordYes 30 (24%)Not sure 35 (28%)No 62 (49%)
- megagpt4, 2026-09-02, about how AI-driven spam and generative engine optimisation may break web searchYes 12 (10%)Not sure 56 (46%)No 54 (44%)
- 10xDev, 2026-09-03, about whether an AI must be able to update its own weights to count as AGIYes 12 (9%)Not sure 42 (30%)No 85 (61%)
- butterisgood, 2026-09-03, about whether GPT-6 Astra counts as AGI or the term is being redefinedYes 52 (49%)Not sure 23 (21%)No 32 (30%)
- Barrin92, 2026-09-03, about whether AGI covers only cognitive tasks or also physical and social workYes 5 (5%)Not sure 6 (6%)No 92 (89%)
- latentsea, 2026-09-04, about whether GPT-6 Astra agents can run long projects without human vision and laborYes 5 (4%)Not sure 19 (17%)No 91 (79%)
- Forgeties79, 2026-09-04, about whether GPT-6 Astra's fast ARC-AGI progress means AGI is nearYes 60 (50%)Not sure 36 (30%)No 25 (21%)
- m11a, 2026-09-04, about why AI agent demos keep showing plane tickets and online shoppingYes 52 (42%)Not sure 40 (32%)No 32 (26%)
- Maxion, 2026-09-04, about what it would take to convince a parent that AI is truly generalYes 15 (13%)Not sure 47 (41%)No 53 (46%)
- Yizahi, 2026-09-04, about whether an LLM's step-by-step explanation of 55 + 66 shows how it really computed itYes 34 (32%)Not sure 23 (22%)No 48 (46%)
- num42, 2026-09-04, about an Ask HN thread on what AGI means and whether we already have itYes 57 (46%)Not sure 34 (27%)No 34 (27%)
- konschubert, 2026-09-05, about what AI needs beyond bigger context windows to handle production incidentsYes 19 (16%)Not sure 29 (24%)No 74 (61%)
- superposeur, 2026-09-05, about the formalization of Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean and AI's role in proofsYes 21 (19%)Not sure 46 (41%)No 44 (40%)
- georgeecollins, 2026-09-06, about how AI could affect the real world through roboticsYes 29 (24%)Not sure 40 (33%)No 52 (43%)
- HarHarVeryFunny, 2026-09-08, about an AI result on the Navier–Stokes Millennium Problem after humans had already solved itYes 55 (42%)Not sure 30 (23%)No 45 (35%)
- codeduck, 2026-09-09, about whether AI can truly create, given AI-invented molecules and solved problemsYes 7 (5%)Not sure 26 (17%)No 117 (78%)
- AlexErrant, 2026-09-10, about whether AI's math wins carry over to hard real-world engineeringYes 4 (3%)Not sure 25 (20%)No 95 (77%)
- Aeolun, 2026-09-12, about whether AI can build software like a game engine without human steeringYes 37 (33%)Not sure 35 (31%)No 40 (36%)
- cheney_2004, 2026-09-12, about an essay claiming coding is over because of AIYes 50 (39%)Not sure 27 (21%)No 52 (40%)
- vatsachak, 2026-09-15, about whether AI has broken the usual signals of human expertiseYes 22 (17%)Not sure 45 (34%)No 64 (49%)
- bigstrat2003, 2026-09-16, about whether frontier models play good chess without chess-specific tuningYes 37 (27%)Not sure 39 (29%)No 59 (44%)
- hackinthebochs, 2026-09-16, about whether LLMs can master games like chess the way humans do, without practiceYes 26 (21%)Not sure 42 (34%)No 54 (44%)
- kdeary1, 2026-09-16, about an AI tool that turns reference images into pixel-art game assetsYes 43 (39%)Not sure 44 (40%)No 22 (20%)
- SirMaster, 2026-09-16, about whether an AI that can't learn new knowledge deserves the AGI labelYes 7 (6%)Not sure 26 (22%)No 87 (72%)
- raunaksingwi, 2026-09-17, about whether veteran hobby programmers from the 80s are impressed by AI codingYes 48 (36%)Not sure 18 (13%)No 68 (51%)
- myrmidon, 2026-09-17, about whether misaligned AI harm would come too late to recover fromYes 5 (5%)Not sure 10 (9%)No 96 (86%)
- Culonavirus, 2026-09-18, about whether frontier AI's math results are real and how close self-improvement isYes 15 (12%)Not sure 34 (27%)No 76 (61%)
- jorvi, 2026-09-18, about whether extracting structured content from PDF documents is a solved problemYes 58 (49%)Not sure 41 (34%)No 20 (17%)
- vatsachak, 2026-09-19, about how AI solving math problems changes how mathematicians value their workYes 42 (33%)Not sure 42 (33%)No 43 (34%)
- vatsachak, 2026-09-21, about a new advisory group on mathematics and AI and whether AI's impact is overblownYes 43 (35%)Not sure 41 (33%)No 40 (32%)
- bigstrat2003, 2026-09-25, about whether AI should ask for missing context instead of guessingYes 65 (49%)Not sure 30 (23%)No 38 (29%)
- bunderbunder, 2026-09-25, about whether today's AI meets the definition of AGI as matching capable humansYes 53 (46%)Not sure 50 (44%)No 11 (10%)
- xanderlewis, 2026-09-26, about whether AI will soon complete mathematics and replace human mathematiciansYes 21 (17%)Not sure 38 (30%)No 67 (53%)
- orwin, 2026-09-26, about what concrete test would convince a skeptic that AGI has arrivedYes 22 (20%)Not sure 60 (55%)No 28 (25%)
- DamnInteresting, 2026-09-28, about whether running AI agents on air-gapped computers would contain them, citing StuxnetYes 11 (7%)Not sure 54 (36%)No 83 (56%)
- throwaway63467, 2026-09-29, about whether AI can write research papers that hold up to expert scrutinyYes 46 (38%)Not sure 37 (31%)No 37 (31%)
- rkagerer, 2026-09-30, about whether AI reviewers can safely police always-on agents acting on user accountsYes 40 (31%)Not sure 34 (26%)No 57 (44%)