About a $10,000 bet on whether fully self-driving cars will exist by 2030.
Has this happened?
Yes 33 (29%)Not sure 35 (31%)No 44 (39%)
Votes cast 1–2 October 2026: 100,590 votes from 9,694 people.
Hacker News has set AI a lot of challenges over the years. Which ones has it met?
About a $10,000 bet on whether fully self-driving cars will exist by 2030.
Votes cast 1–2 October 2026: 100,590 votes from 9,694 people.
Changing classifications aren't going to affect the bet, because both of these gents know what they're betting on.
If I could make a $10,000 bet with John Carmack, I'd go the way Atwood has. No way there will be fully self-driving cars by 2030. That's only 8 years away. Fully self-driving cars need one of two things:
A) All cars are self-driving, and are networked, and centrally controlled. No exceptions.
B) The AI is smart enough that we should be worried about the ethical implications.
If an AI can react to terrible human drivers as well as a good human driver can, then I'd invite that AI over for dinner.