About whether Vernor Vinge's prediction of superhuman intelligence within thirty years has come true.
Has this happened?
Yes 27 (22%)Not sure 29 (23%)No 69 (55%)
Votes cast 1–2 October 2026: 100,590 votes from 9,694 people.
Hacker News has set AI a lot of challenges over the years. Which ones has it met?
About whether Vernor Vinge's prediction of superhuman intelligence within thirty years has come true.
Votes cast 1–2 October 2026: 100,590 votes from 9,694 people.
> > Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence.
Blackwell.
I'm fucking sorry but there is no LLM or "AI" platform that is even real intelligence, today, easily demonstrated by the fact that an LLM cannot be used to create a better LLM. Go on, ask ChatGPT to output a novel model that performs better than any other model. Oh, it doesn't work? That's because IT'S NOT INTELLIGENT. And it's DEFINITELY not "superhuman intelligence." Not even close.
Sometimes accurately regurgitating facts is NOT intelligence. God it's so depressing to see commenters on this hell-site listing current-day tech as ANYTHING approaching AGI.