About whether AI abilities will soon grow at an exponential rate.
Has this happened?
Yes 20 (17%)Not sure 38 (32%)No 59 (50%)
Votes cast 1–2 October 2026: 100,590 votes from 9,694 people.
Hacker News has set AI a lot of challenges over the years. Which ones has it met?
About whether AI abilities will soon grow at an exponential rate.
Votes cast 1–2 October 2026: 100,590 votes from 9,694 people.
AI will improve at an exponential rate once it can independently improve AI performance. For example. Once AI can organically identify, test, confirm, deploy an improvement like R1 vs o1 (in terms of perf/watt) then we'll see exponential improvement. Honestly though, that still seems possible within 5 years or less, maybe 3.