About whether Aschenbrenner's prediction of AGI within a few years is naive.
Has this happened?
Yes 14 (12%)Not sure 40 (36%)No 58 (52%)
Votes cast 1–2 October 2026: 100,590 votes from 9,694 people.
Hacker News has set AI a lot of challenges over the years. Which ones has it met?
About whether Aschenbrenner's prediction of AGI within a few years is naive.
Votes cast 1–2 October 2026: 100,590 votes from 9,694 people.
I mean, the numbers for the money in the paper in terms of investment mean that spending is on track for what he’s talking about. 4 to 7 more years is a lot but it’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
My understanding of the models and linear algebra combined with my experience of their performance improvements make me think he’s likely right. We have some people wanting to pooh-pooh these machines. They will point to current limitations of the models and weak spots as though the underlying mode of the design rather than the current implementation is the limiting factor. They act as though real intelligence is always right.
I have been wrong before but I am pretty convinced. Everyone’s arguments against it happening is that it hasn’t yet happened.
No one knows what’s on the other side of AI being a better AI researcher than humans.